I expect the default rate for loans being issued today will be less than 10%, because some of the amounts still outstanding will likely be repaid late. 90% is the portion of due amounts that has already been repaid (for 2014 loans).

That said, we are continuously improving our lending model in response to experience, and the repayment rate is increasing with each new cohort of loans we disburse.

Bayes Impact (another YC nonprofit which connects data scientists to nonprofits) is developing a credit risk prediction algorithm for use in vetting Zidisha loan applicants. Once that is deployed, we expect it will improve repayment rates substantially.