> making an offer (and landing the candidate) is the exceptional condition

> In other words, odds are that you are not going to get the job.

The first is true but it doesn't really imply the second:

In my area, the active jobseeker population for development jobs mostly consists of a gigantic, persistent mass of sub-competent developers (you know if you aren't one) and people who are always on the lookout for something better. Anyone else gets picked up pretty damn quickly. If you're in the latter group, odds are you are going to get an offer (of which you will reject the majority). I suspect companies that think they're being more selective at the hiring stage are probably just being capricious; it's not easy to judge the quality of your own hiring process.