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Which we could shorten to:

"The single biggest predictor of achievement is achievement"

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For one generation; from the second onwards it becomes: "The single biggest predictor of achievement is lineage"

Not necessarily. Failure is always an option.

It doesn't in any way change the validity of GP's statement.

I think that we overstate the "economic" and discount the "socio" aspect of "socioeconomic".

That failure is an option doesn't in any way change that socioeconomic status of parents is the best predictor. I.e. kids from rich families fail less than kids from poor families.

Except in your shortened version, you've completely eliminated what you're using to measure "achievement".

Plenty of people don't define academic success as achievement. A lot of blue collar communities consider other things as being successful.

Define achievement as you wish and you'll probably find it holds true. Expert pickpocket as a measure of achievement? Kids probably go on score well on that environment. And to be fair, in the right situation it's probably a pretty good measure.

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