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Comment by gighi | Hacker News Reader

What would make this more interesting for me would be a pretty accurate answer to the question: "what are the chances that this could happen again if the guy started in 2014"? :)

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Provided the overall market and economy continue to grow in spite of short term volatility, it would happen again. If one honestly believes that the whole market is going to go down over time, then probably best to look at bonds or precious metals.

Yeah, the condition you mention is the key: what are the odds that the US economy (or the overall world average, if you're diversified with a global index) will continue to grow as gloriously as it has done in the past 50 years? (when the guy started investing)

Or better yet, what would have happened if he invested in inner-city property? Short of investing in Detroit that would probably go pretty well.

Property prices are fuelled primarily by population growth. If we look 30 years ahead, it's likely that the population of rich world countries (especially Europe[1]) will decrease as the baby-boomers, sadly, disappear. That could be a huge chunk of the current home-owning population leaving lots of empty homes, often in quite desirable areas. It would be safe to assume this extra supply would cause demand, and therefore price, to fall in the next 30 years.

Immigration could fill the gap but as the source countries grow in prosperity, perhaps immigration from them will reduce too.

This all depends on whether or not population will continue to increase, indefinitely.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growt...

Property prices are also tough to predict as preferences change and the general buying power of the economy changes. A major issue with the most recent housing slump is that many young people, who would be first time homebuyers, are choosing not to purchase a home. This is reducing liquidity for those that would normally sell their starter homes to them and upgrade. While general property values will probably rise, it is a very illiquid asset class and highly dependent on geographical preferences.

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