It doesn't look good. It's very well possible, but the other parties just do not seem interested. Maybe because they are currently investing in Javascript related technologies.
The VM is neat too, but from the user's perspective, it's an implementation detail. It's a really nice development tool, because it lets you run and debug your Dart code straight from source instead of trying to deal with generated code.
But I think it's relatively less important that the VM be shipped to end users. I think Dart can be a great, successful product without that happening.
At least with dart2js I have just one "VM" to target - Google have sorted the x-browser issues for me. Imagine the peculiarities you'd find in Microsoft's implementation, for example.