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But the people higher up the chain don't get to see the whiteboards and so can't easily dismiss this as planning a computer game. Unless the agents took photos?

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The priori of a dude planning an ICBM attack on whiteboard in an apt is so low that unless you have very very strong evidences that it exists (and words by random people without photos certainly don't count as one), for all practical purposes, it isn't true.

And I sincerely do hope that if such a plan truly exists somewhere, the power that be have better evidences/ discovery than being informed by letting agents.

Unfortunately, the probability that someone is able to understand this logic is lowered considerably once you realize that they're working in a job where they're required to act on such threats. Most people who are capable of such calculations will not find such jobs fulfilling, and those who do will find themselves constantly second-guessed by bosses who don't have that skill. It's a profession that selects against Bayesian reasoning.

Humans are -really- bad at intuitively calculating risk, and I have yet to encounter any sort of formal education in the US that teaches us how to properly calculate it.

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