The NSA reaches out

"Some thirty-year scenarios… 1) Intelligence Debilitated (with no new social contract of trust and thus the loss of new talent, the government cannot keep up with advancing technology and loses the ability to manage its hazards); 2) Withering Nation (privacy obsession hampers commercial activity and government oversight, and nations develop their own conflicting Internets); 3) Intelligent America (new social contract with agreed privacy norms and ongoing security assurance)."

Given the 9/11 CYA response and a lack of evidence that anything the NSA does is effective, I don't see the downside of #1 or the upside of #3.

#2 presumes only the nation-state can protect business and the internets. I think the multi-nationals have moved on, and the masses will too.

The NSA is dancing around the real issues. There really are not three possible outcomes.

If encryption works, the choices are stark: A. Strong encryption is made illegal, and we are living stripped naked in the panopticon, or B. we have pretty much absolute privacy in communications, and that means that the prerogative governments assume they have, to snoop as they choose, is over.

I would rather have B. The government has demonstrated they can't contain snooping.