Comment by 7Figures2Commas | Hacker News Reader

Comment by 7Figures2Commas | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

7Figures2Commas

> You've been living in Oakland for the last 10 years. You work at a local place making $15/hr. You have built up a lot of friends and enjoy your life. Suddenly the tech boom hits. A year later your landlord decides to sell the house. You go out and try to find a new place but its twice what your last place was and over half your income.

> You know that if the tech boom didn't show up none of that would have happened.

The tech boom has obviously not hurt the real estate market in the Bay Area, but it's a common misconception that the tech boom is the primary driver.

There is a substantial amount of money coming into the Bay Area real estate market from overseas and a significant amount (perhaps most) of the domestic home buyers are not newly-minted tech millionaires.

The truth of the matter is that a lot of the well-paid tech workers cannot afford to buy in the Bay Area. This has impacted the rental market more than it has the home market, but the rental trend is one seen nationally.

The really important part of my quote you missed was

> But that doesn't matter because the market is so competitive the new landlord wouldn't rent to you anyway.

As I noted, the rental trend is one seen nationally. In the wake of the Great Recession, which destroyed the finances and credit scores of millions of Americans, many folks have found themselves unable to obtain a mortgage. Even for those who are able to obtain financing to buy a home, in many metropolitan areas, rebounding home prices have pushed many out of the market. Furthermore, in many areas it is exceedingly difficult to find and close on a purchase as a non-cash buyer.

Around the country, millions of would-be home buyers have become renters and there is not enough apartment supply. Rents are rising nationally and lots of people are struggling to cope, including in cities where there is no tech boom to blame. In short, the dearth of affordable rentals is not the result of the tech industry. It's the result of a broader supply and demand imbalance.

Yes, that is absolutely true and valid. Indeed the rental push is national and a great point. That said, to compare the rental increase in Oakland, or the Bay in general, is a far stretch from the national average. And the reason for that is obvious to most who have lived in both situations.

You seem to be assuming that the Bay Area has experienced the greatest increase in rents. Looking at the actual numbers is more useful.

Recently, Seattle has experienced the greatest percentage increase in rents[1]. San Francisco and San Jose were up there, but the recent percentage increases in the Bay Area have, for instance, been on par with the increases seen in 2012-2013 in cities like Houston, Miami, San Diego and Boston[2].

It's a tough market out there for lots of people and while it's convenient to think that the Bay Area is always special because of the tech industry, this simply isn't the case.

[1] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230488710...

[2] http://realestate.msn.com/massive-rent-increases-to-continue

Considering that I currently live in Seattle, have lived in SF and Oakland recently, grew up around Boston and work with a group out of Miami, I probably have pretty good idea of how warped it is in the Bay Area. Nice charts tho.

So your personal perceptions trump hard numbers from businesses that get paid to track real estate data? Cool beans.

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/

soooo many charts

Reply on news.ycombinator.com