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I think that PG's elements for success are, in a generic way, about right. Just that that vagueness sort of precludes one from applying them to specific situations until after the fact.

That was my sentiment as well, after reading. Much of what is said is difficult to argue with on an ideological level; it's just that it's rather abstract.

Ok, to continue your (excellent) mountain-climbing analogy, the ultimate goal is to climb the mountain and return safely. Encountering potentially fatal difficulties near the summit will result in you turning back to retry later if you are "determined" to reach the ultimate goal. If you willfully abandon the long-term goal of returning safely to achieve the "ambition" of reaching the summit, that's reckless rather than disciplined.

Some people are smart because they push on in the face of great opposition. Others win plaudits for "knowing when to quit" and changing direction. It's all a bit wishy washy,

Its not that its wishy washy, its that one of the great keys to success is knowing the difference between the two. On the one hand, if you are on the right track you probably need to be ready to persevere in the face of enormous opposition, but if you are on the wrong track, no matter how far you have gone, change directions. Telling the difference can be quite challenging though, at least in some cases.

Exactly. It's like the old question of the difference between having an open mind versus holes in the head.

Both vary so much between even similar situations, that there is no way of knowing which side of the line cases fall on, unless they are extremely good or bad, except try it and see.

This contains some good points concerning development in dangerous areas: aviation, extreme sports, mountain climbing etc. In order to push the field forward, you have to do stuff where the risks are not known beforehand. So choosing to push in a given direction can cause great improvements in the entire field, or kill you. This is one of the reasons I will never try to become a world-class glider pilot.