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callmeed

I know we marvel at the pace of technology lately but it blows my mind that humankind went from:

0. Bicycles in the early/mid 19th century (depending on your definition)

1. to motorized cars 50ish years later

2. to actually flying at the turn of the 20th century

3. to transporting humans into space and then on the moon just 66 years later

I'd argue we haven't made such large, significant technology leaps in such a short span (just over 100 years) since then. Not sure we ever will (hopefully with energy).

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>I'd argue we haven't made such large, significant technology leaps in such a short span

In 1999 I used a card catalog at my rural library to get an encyclopedia from 1989.

Just today I used my cell phone to call my friend who is quite literally halfway around the world and had a real time video chat with her. This happened in 14 years.

> ... and had a real time video chat with her

I'm not sure that's a particularly inspiring example of technology progress.

In 1999 video conferencing over the Internet was already a reality, though it was very low quality. I know we tried it in work around that time. Skype launched in 2003 and basically solved that problem.

So in the next 11 years the main development was in wireless networking, which was basically a refinement of military datalinks which had been in service at least since the AN/ARR-39 of 1956.

So in the next 11 years the main development was in wireless networking, which was basically a refinement of military datalinks which had been in service at least since the AN/ARR-39 of 1956.

You might as well write the whole lot off as a glorified telegram, if that's the stance you're going to take.

Well the internet is essentially just a really fast mail horse so there haven't been any improvements in communication for thousands of years!

Reminds me of: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbTT5b-wDYs

Well, by that argument the space program was just a refinement of the Montgolfier balloon of 1783; both involve flying, after all.

In reality, quantitative parameters - cost, performance, reliability, usability - matter more than 'the first X'.

I was sort of attempting to string together related milestones (transportation). It would be better to compare card catalogs to wikipedia (and the printing press before).

Or video communications (FaceTime/Skype) with the telegraph and telephone. The development of telephone goes back as far as the bike/car so I'd posit that communications technology grew at about the same pace.

> I'd argue we haven't made such large, significant technology leaps in such a short span (...)

I can talk to and see someone in Japan (and she can see me too!) with the cellphone in my pocket.

I can find my position anywhere in the globe, down to an accuracy of 10 m, with a $ 100 gadget. It can also give me directions in realtime.

I can type something on Google and find more information about it than I could ever read/watch.

When I was a kid, just 20 years ago, those things weren't available neither affordable. I only had available to me payphones, maps and encyclopedias, inventions from the XVIII, XVI and I centuries, respectively. Now think about that.

Digital electronic computers were developed in the early 1940s. In the early 1970s we had microprocessors, and in the late 70s/early 80s we had affordable personal microcomputers.

There's no single, landmark event in the history of digital computing that compares to the moon landing, and of course the development of computing owns a lot to space exploration research. Still, to the extent that such comparisons make sense at all, the advent of cheap, ubiquitous microcomputers has had far more impact on humanity's welfare and culture than the landing on the moon.

Right. This is due to about 10% inspiration and 90% petroleum. We are 100W machines with 10kW energy footprints. You can do a lot of work with that.

The internet and mobile computing has been an equivalently momentous innovation but it's impact has generally been more indirect and immediate. Future historians will be able to look back and see the impact, but while immersed in it and at some midpoint along the phase change it's much less obvious and noticeable.

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