The analysis provides a derivation of the model, but it does not even hint at the accuracy of a finished model, and there's plenty of data to do cross-validation.
Good point - thanks for the feedback! Yes, it's been about 75% on the R16 games. It's also fully interactive - so you can change the weights to explore relationships with historical data that might be interesting.
France is beating Nigeria with 100% certainty, and Brazil beats Chile with 35% probability i.e. loses with 65% probability.
I don't think the model is working great.
Yes, that is with high certainty, but not 100%. We'll fix the messaging hear - thanks for flagging. Also, it's interactive so you can change the weights and see what happens
They appear to have built just an empty black web page for me (Firefox/Mac)
Thanks for catching - for now you'll have to view it in Chrome.