Taxi medallions have been the best investment. Now Uber may be changing that
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The number available is limited, so if you want a driver's license you have to wait for someone to die, and then buy the license from the estate. Since it's artificially scarce you'd have to pay a pretty penny to get one. Some companies might step in and buy up driver's licenses to rent them to drivers for only a few hundred dollars a month...
Treating any form of license as transferable private property seems to be against the public interest.
The situation isn't the same as your hypothetical situation though. The licenses aren't perpetual or (for the most part) transferable.
Incidentally, the traffic flows pretty well there.
Frankly, I think car usage should, ideally, cost 2-3 times what it costs in the U.S. to account for all the externalized costs. (Those taxes could be used to modernize the train system and public transportation.) That wouldn't be practical, unfortunately, as the country is set up now.
Try telling bill the farmer that his truck is gonna cost 3x more to run this year to help fund light rail in The city. Singapore and the US is an apples to pork chops comparison.
The UK has a system where inner city drivers have to pay congestion taxes.
Both of these systems make some progress towards limiting congestion and subsidising public transport in dense areas without hurting those outside the cities. Personally I think they should both go a lot further.
In my view the taxi licenses should be of fixed length. It's ok to say "The roads only allow for 13K (or however many) taxis." It's wrong to give people a lifetime annuity based on it, and create a barrier to entry in the industry. Better to have a fixed term like 5 or 10 years. Long enough that it's worth investing in the business. Short enough that others can enter. And the total # should be flexible, perhaps linked to traffic and population.
Most people underestimate the harm of that program because they don't understand price elasticity. It's true that only ~1-2% of apartments are under that system. However, 1-2% supply destruction can actually double prices. (See: oil shocks.)
Another problem is that this country is run by scumbags and pussies who allow foreigners to own real estate (many countries don't). Now, I'm all for a reasonably open immigration policy, and letting foreigners live here is not the issue. (The people who move here to live here don't have a major effect on the rent, and are good for the country overall.) But the types of foreigners who buy U.S. real estate are usually corrupt officials who want a place to live if their own country brings them to trial. (In China, corruption is a death-penalty offense.) This is the real reason why Silicon Valley is so expensive: every fucking Communist Party scumbag in China and murdering Russian oligarch and Arab slave state billionaire has bought a place (even if it goes uninhabited) in California. It doesn't affect a large number of houses, strictly speaking, but it's enough of a margin to have massive impacts on the price level.
I am amazed at Americans' willingness to be "patriotic" about stupid things and get into nonsensical wars... but then we go and let corrupt, murdering dictators and billionaires from all over the world buy California and Manhattan real estate. It's fucking disgusting.
The other thing to think about is, do you really think "communists from china" are buying 1-bedroom apartments in the Mission? No, they are buying the multi-million dollar homes in Russian Hill. For the average American those homes were never within budget.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/scant-e...
I think you could argue that foreign money is driving up home prices in Vancouver, but it's certainly not the main factor raising home prices.
The problem is people. People usually fight against "ugly" new development and "Manhattanization" and change of all kinds, and while they make arguments based on urban beauty, they're really just trying to protect their obscene premiums on real estate by blocking new supply.
I actually think urban home ownership makes no sense for most people. Ownership is about a sense of control. If you live in the woods and sit on an acre of land or two, you can be pretty sure that no one's going to block your morning sun, or set up a nightclub next door. Cities can't afford to grant those assurances. It's just better, from that standpoint, for most people to rent. Why make your primary investment something that another person with more power and more money can easily fuck up, just by buying space near it?
Oh really? Please tell me again how people were thinking a gimmick that's valuable only because of a government imposed monopoly is a sound investment.
The bubble is popping. And it would be interesting to ask why did the price started going up around the 2000s...
City streets are a limited public good. Aside from ensuring quality and consumer protection, regulation & limiting the number of taxis ensures that traffic can actually flow. A traffic consultant says that NYC's plan to add 2,000 medallions could slow down all traffic by 12% because taxis don't park -- they roam the streets constantly.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/07/31/157477611/does-new...
Instead, traffic-limiting measures should target all vehicles using congestion tolls, gas taxes, vehicle taxes, or something more innovative.
If the current license holder can't or won't use it for another year there's absolutely no reason he should be allowed to transfer his permit. The regulator should just keep a list of people interested in it and let the next one have his turn.
Two great examples: 1.) Staying in Fremont, CA, needing a trip to the San Jose airport at 4:50 in the morning. I had a cab 'scheduled' but a few drivers didn't show up, and they didn't bother calling me to let me know that they were not going to show up. The dispatcher didn't speak english well and didn't understand the questions that I asked. If I had instant feedback that nobody was coming, I would have made alternate plans the minute that I knew nobody was going to pick me up. 2.) In Chicago for a business trip. I generally don't carry cash, but, needed a ride from point a to point b. Taxi driver's sticker said he took credit cards, but his machine was 'down.' A "standoff" of sorts occurred between me, the taxi driver, and Chicago PD; ultimately, after the police harassing him (and reminding him that a working credit card reader was required in the city), he reluctantly ran my credit card and let me out of his car.
It's unfair that the Taxi companies skirt these rules too -- Uber and Lyft just give their ecosystems a quicker way to get ride of bad actors and focus on customer service, where the Taxi companies are focused on keeping the medallion owners happy.
Then the argument for overhauling taxi medallions and restrictive rideshare laws wouldn't be sidelined so often by stories of shitty uber drivers/practices and bad taxis alike. I also feel that everyone would benefit from this kind of government regulation _if done well_, because if left alone with little enforcement and only free market choices to influence business decisions, nobody would want to deal with servicing half of San Francisco, or folks with disabilities. Like your story of getting to SJC from Fremont - have you tried to catch an Uber on the east side of the Bay Area when you're not in downtown Oakland or near airports? It takes forever and a half even during the day. It's easier to just walk/use AC Transit to a BART station or wait and call for a regular cab five times than it is to wait for an Uber from OAK or worse for me, even though there were a whole bunch of times where I _wanted_ to pay for an Uber from Hayward to SF multiple times in a week (read: BART strike).
I have also had a few other things: kidnapped, cab driver trying to run other cars off the road, talking on cell phone (40% - 60% of the time), stopping for gas, picking up their friends, operate a vehicle with brakes that were clearly barely operable, and so on.
Uber has bad drivers too, but I assume they don't last long. In NYC, at least, cab drivers can expect to keep driving even after killing pedestrians. http://nypost.com/2014/02/09/cabbies-who-kill-or-maim-in-nyc...
The same thing is true for lawyers, land meters, certified accountants, ... they effectively get one "get out of jail free" card for any offence that occurred on the job, and isn't an obvious repeat offence, or was an obvious case of corruption (and getting paid a lot, but not directly to commit a crime is not corruption).
Why ? Two reasons. Firstly, because taking that licence destroys the person, nobody wants to do it. Second because of the effect of taking away licences, their competitors could cause their licence to be taken away to increase business (for lawyers at least, I know two cases where this happened)
The current regulation regime does not produce safety, fairness or improve quality, but it does stifle competition.
The question we should be debating is the relative quality of regulated Taxi vs. Uber-style free market. To make progress we would need to allow Uber to operate for some time, and then look at the accident/crime/satisfaction surveys. Speculating about what regulation can do for us in theory is fruitless, and denying the opportunity for alternatives to be tested out, which is what those cab-lobbies advocate, is dishonest.
So yes I'm with you on this one. I also find it a little funny that everyone brings up anecdotal evidence about shitty cab drivers and awesome Uber drivers as an argument for deregulation. Such micro activities are meaningless in the face of what happens at the macro-economic scale.
Better regulation, like what you describe, seems better than no regulation, but I'd be willing to accept no taxi regulation if it gets rid of the political cronyism and high prices that go with it.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230425020...
no, generally more expensive, but the product is way better. My girlfriend gets sick with exhaust vapors when typical cheap taxi drivers lave their windows open and insist their AC is broken. Taxi shocks are usually shot, and the ride crashes around on city streets. Uber has nice, comfy, clean, big, air conditioned vehicles. Worth the extra money.
I could go on about how much I have a problem with Uber, just like how much I hate taxis. The only nice thing about Uber here is that there's an easy way to get in touch and fix a problem. That for sure, I agree, is worth the cost.
That being said, I've found UberX in SF is cheaper than cabs, so I have even less interest in taking cabs.... but the last few cities I went to like NYC and Miami, the cabs were great. Wish SFMTA would step it up...
1. Download the Lyft app 2. Enter code LOSANGELES (works nationwide) 3. Request and enjoy your FREE ride 4. Repeat on another phone to ride home for free
But it's not clear to me that other types of regulation are desirable. Environmental standards should be the same for all cars; driver training has been made almost redundant by sat-nav systems; a reputation-based system might be better than a 'requiring pickup' system.
In particular, I want a regulatory system that makes it easy for someone to be a taxi driver only from midnight to 2am on Saturday nights. Or only to and from the airport between 3pm and 6pm. This is the sort of flexibility that brings down costs overall.
Did you know in many cities you cannot be a tour guide without a license? Open a hair salon? Want to do business with a government agency, well there might be rules pertaining to the services your business provides in that case, and that case only.
The list goes on and on. Eventually we need to really analyze what really is important. I would say if life is on the line then you might be justified, but driving a few people between points on a map?
Urban taxi companies have many, many problems that have persisted for decades. There is no one solution that covers all of them.
They should be regulated by the market. Consumers will buy what they want and suppliers will conform to demand or go out of business.
Now Uber is probably changing all that thanks to mobile internet, but that wasn't possible before.
I agree.
The medallion system is a disaster. In fact, it's systemized government corruption. Most of these medallion-owning assholes have never driven a taxi in their lives. They're just rent-seeking vampires.
The purpose of limiting the supply of drivers is to prevent a race to the bottom-- and I would generally support that, for a variety of reasons. But the effect of the medallion system is that drivers do no better under the system than without it, because they have to pay enormous leasing fees.
A fully unregulated system is a bad idea (it means you're screwed if you live in the outer boroughs, it will encourage unsafe conditions and driving) but the medallion system needs to be shut down.
I do think things like Uber and Airbnb are very cool and innovative
Uber is an evil company. It's not surge pricing alone that makes it evil. It's the complete lack of transparency around surge pricing, and the fact that (unlike Lyft) it increases its own take when surge is in effect. It's one thing for prices to go up when the supply of cars can't mean demand. It's an entirely different situation when the (a) pricing algorithm is opaque and (b) it's determined unilaterally by a company with every incentive to manipulate it.
I am glad to see the medallion parasites under threat, though. If I were mayor of any of these cities, my first move would be to scrap the medallion system, with no compensation to their owners.
It's not hard. If you don't like the price of something, don't buy it.
Uber collects when surge pricing is in effect, which means that there's a conflict of interest in how it manages this algorithm, which is not really a free market. In a free market, drivers and riders (not Uber) would decide on the price point for each level of service and availability.
I would imagine that when surge pricing is in effect Uber comes away with less revenue than periods where fares are normal.
That seems very unlikely.
If history has proven anything, it is that evolution always wins.
It becomes a mix of Expedia an an auction site. You say where you are, and where you want to go, and get bids from car companies that claim to be able to get to you in X time, and charge you Y to get to your destination. You get to pick. With automated cars, their bids are all by algorithm.
I'd be shocked if the Uber people weren't thinking about this problem today.
Since this is such an obvious part of the business model, I don't think they will get the chance to do this.
There's one thing people don't yet understand about robots in the public space. Who carries the responsibility for the driving, and for accidents ? Currently for normal cars this is shared between producer and driver. With self-driving cars both the producer and driver are one and the same company, and obviously the occupants won't feel a great sense of responsibility, they'll feel they are victims, for obvious reasons : they didn't do anything.
So ownership and insurance of things don't make sense for driver less cars. Ownership of them doesn't make sense because the responsibility thing doesn't work if you don't allow the producer remote access to do anything they want to the car. Insurance doesn't make sense for similar reasons.
So yes I'm sure the car companies will allow Uber to take part in some "affiliate" scheme, but I'd expect that to be the limit of their involvement.
I think the general idea behind driverless cars is that they can be JIT-rented, and since Uber would have the infrastructure in place, they would be the natural market leader.
In February, he sued the city on behalf of medallion
owners, brokers, managers, financiers and cab
affiliations. The suit argues that the city has violated
their rights by allowing new companies to provide an
essentially identical transportation service without
complying with existing regulation. By eliminating the
exclusive right of medallion owners to provide that
service, the suit argues, the city has taken away the
thing that gives medallions their value as property
under Illinois law.
“If you think it’s an improvement to change the rules,
maybe you can do that,” says Edward Feldman, a partner
with Shakman. “But you have to provide compensation for
the property rights you’re destroying. And that’s the
Constitution.”
Medallions represent a promise, he says. And on that
promise, medallion owners took out mortgage-size loans.
If the city backs out of that promise, it must make them
whole.
So, if I buy a fishing license but fail to catch any fish, can I sue my state's Department of Fish and Wildlife for a refund of my $50? I wonder what people would say if I tried?Good idea or horrible idea, certain cities created licensing regimes that promised to protect taxi drivers from competition if they paid for medallions. Now that others are flouting the law and circumventing the licensing regime, the taxi drivers want their protection money back if they're not going to receive the protection they were promised.
I have no issue with government regulation of the taxi industry - quite the opposite. Certainly I think that it's important to mandate vehicle safety inspections. But if taxi licenses are going to be supply constrained, they should be issued by the government for a flat fee on a first-come first-served, use-it-or-lose-it basis. They should only be purchasable by the driver that will be driving the taxi and they should not be transferrable.
It's going to be very interesting to see how the industry will change.
1. Almost all will switch to Uber, Lyft etc. 2. Driveless cars take over. 3. Distributed network of driveless cars backed by bitcoin like transactions. No need for central logistics like Uber.
What will happen first: 2 or 3
This Uber stuff is throwing a twist into his conclusions.
Looking at the DJIA, It was ~11,700 in Jan 2000 and by March 2009 it was down to ~6,600. The graph makes it look like it was about 100% of what it was in 2000. That makes no sense.
Also, they have the CPI plotted, but it's a straight line at 100. So they might be correcting for CPI, but in that case, you'd expect the 2009 DJIA to be even lower.
https://www.quora.com/Ride-Sharing/How-much-does-the-average...
Most of the numbers quoted seem to be in the general neighborhood of $20/hour, more if you do it as a part-time thing during peak hours.