Street value of approx: $17,330,000 USD
I'd wager it will sell for much less, likely 3/4 of that street price.
I'd wager it will sell for much less, likely 3/4 of that street price.
Street value this morning: $18,752,406.34
Street value now (2014-06-12 @ 7pm NYC time): $17,220,321.22 (it lost $110,000 in value in the hour since you posted)
I'd wager it will sell for around 1/2 its street value when the auction is completed.
ie. they just want to get rid of the assets and move on.
Aside from this, there's also a transaction cost component.. it takes time and some money to transact (think opportunity cost of the 200k deposit, lawyer fees, etc.) and this would be reflected. The sale price would reflect both of these.
Now, if the good was completely fungible, risk-free and totally liquid (think cash), there would be no expected discount because of risk.. just transaction cost.
How is that not the case here?
It is apparently hard to trade that many bitcoins for the equivalent amount of government-backed currency or goods.
To be fair to Bitcoin, it's not the only "currency" with that problem... during the Argentinean crisis, many local governments paid their workers with alternative currencies ("patacones" and others) which rapidly devalued.
As a result, a buyer would be willing to pay market price - transaction costs - risk transfer cost.
Pricing the risk is of course tough as future volatility is especially tough to predict for BTC. But this is the fundamental rubric for how one would view the transaction.
Individual sales mean nothing to overall valuations unless the saleable item is truly unique. Bitcoins aren't.
Potential bidders must have $200,000 USD Deposit sent to the U.S. Marshalls from a U.S. bank account by 9am June 16th (~2 business days from now).
That disqualifies a good 99.9999% of the world from being eligible to bid.
Yes, however it doesn't disqualify a single person/party who actually has the capability (and interest) to purchase the minimum block of 3,000 btc (~$1.5M dollars).
There are people who know exactly how to buy seized goods from the government. They make money doing so. If you think they are making Too Much Money, then you can raise money from your friends and start competing with them.
It's very similar to buying distressed houses. You can make a killing there, or end up bankrupt. The market figures out the risk premiums on its own.