Fake Friends with Real Benefits
medium.com
medium.com
"on social media it is easy to mistake popularity for credibility"
I wouldn't say this is limited to social media. This flaw is present in search engines as well, which is why link farms work (and search engines are in a constant, futile battle against them). In politics, it's why astroturfing works and why the more you spend on saturation advertising, the better your chances are. It's really a flaw in human nature--to confuse popularity for credibility.
I'm convinced that anything out there, online or off, with a ranking system that relies on popularity (counts of links, likes, eyeballs, votes, etc.) is ripe for disruption. What's the alternative way to separate genuine credibility from fake (purchased) credibility? Figure it out and you'll be a billionaire.
It's why brands say "we're #1 in X", "we're the most popular Y", "more people buy our product than any other".
It's why sitcoms have laugh tracks.
And I am not confident on "disrupting" human nature. Most "disruptions" follow the grooves laid out millions of years ago; what changes is the environment, not the subjects.
It's also important to understand that in any high stakes game sniffing out the bad actors is always going to be a never ending cat and mouse game, so no one solution will put an end to it.
There are many similar websites who focus on low quality content optimized for search engines.
OTOH StackOverflow employs similar tactics but it is legit and usually useful content.
Should Google discriminate between these two? If, yes based on what criteria? (Remember, wikihow pages look like they're user generated, legit content) Is there any objective criteria?
I personally would like wikihow to take its place in hell, ehm I mean obscurity. Right next to w3schools.
Or maybe you can and I'm missing a business opportunity. A TAOCP+OraclePropaganda bot sounds like something that might make bags and bags of money.
Because the quality of the top voted answers speaks for themselves in 99% of the ocassions.
You can't use popularity metrics to mean anything substantive.
A ratings service that relies on the person being rated to pay results in conflicts of interest. You will also find it hard to have anyone want to pay for anything that might be critical of them.
A service that did this would require a strong guiding mission, because it's cheaper to shill blog spam than to actually dig in and do accurate research while citing sources.
Is this fact correct? or Does this statement seem correct?
Then present a phrase: "There are less than 10,000 troops in Afghanistan."
When I think about credibility though it quickly appears to be a bit of a mine-field, highly context dependent. If PG writes an article people are going to attribute a huge amount of weight to it. Obviously he is very credible when it comes to a lot of subjects, but context can tell all.
I'd say if he wrote about how paste engagement rings were going to be the next big thing there'd be one or two embarrassing proposals on Youtube within the month. But if he wrote on why paste jewelry is the next big thing in fashion businesses there is obvious weight (whether or not it's correct) to that opinion. So I'd say matching context with popularity, and figuring out transferability of credibility are where this can be disrupted.
This is how I feel about LinkedIn. I've seen so many losers and fuckups (people I've worked with who have destroyed teams and companies) with large numbers of tit-for-tat, glowing recommendations and ridiculous endorsement counts. I haven't played that game (and have an extremely boring LI profile, with past employers not listed) and my numbers are embarrassing.
It's more like the "tragedy of the uncommons": bland people fighting to establish themselves as somehow special or superior, and fucking up everything for everyone. It just generates noise, and the winners are the people who are best at making the right kind of noise.
LinkedIn also tricked a generation into giving up one of their most important professional rights: the right to reinvent themselves. I use it, because the information is useful, but I feel like the world was a much better place when professional oversharing wasn't expected. When labor overshares and capital doesn't change what it does, who should one expect to win?
As far as I'm concerned, I don't have an ethical problem with social proof arbitrage. Even if I did, that'd just mean losing to others who don't follow such rules. The main reason I don't do it is that I don't care. I'm apathetic about "social proof" in general because, in humans, sociality is inversely proportional to quality. I certainly wouldn't want to work at a job where the difference between a 2000 and a 6000 follower count mattered.
Case in point: open source. Over the past year, there have been a few articles exhorting the need to put considerable amounts of time marketing your open source project. Remember, it's not enough to release your code with decent docs, no, you have to buy a domain, put together a flat-themed bootstrap teaser page, make grandiose claims, blog regularly about it, set up a Twitter account, and so on.
Why didn't we feel the need to do all of this the decade before? Oh, right: we weren't all ubiquitously self-promoting to each other via social.
Worker harder, peon! Prove your worth to the world, which might reward you with more influence that you can eventually exchange for a job at $MEGACORP! Then you'll have made it!
Articles:
1. https://hacks.mozilla.org/2014/05/open-source-marketing-with...
I've seen this too, but it's not a new phenomenon. This has always happened behind closed doors; LinkedIn merely makes it public.
Yep, we had an engineer who spent 40 hours a week going around and building social connections.. Where did he find the time?
If managers could account for the hours of utility he stole from others, I think it would be a separate reason to put him on probation. (I know he was on probation for his own output since that was the topic of many of his visits to one of my neighbors who in turn wasted my time complaining about his tedious visits just as I waste yours now. So ends my postmodern fable.)
But I think it is an ironic part of social nature that we continue to reward those who take it too far on the social side of the spectrum (just complaining about them we seem to make them into a necessary quirk of the place or create a miscommunication that gets them a new position) while we let a lot of brilliant people go just because they look like they are on the other side of the spectrum to people who don't see their quieter exchanges.
I don't know anyone that takes these seriously as a signal for hiring someone. You just do what you usually do -- call people you know that have worked with them before to get the scoop. But I don't blame LinkedIn for building and promoting these features. They're like Facebook Pokes -- light touch interactions that promote engagement with connections, and revisits back to the site. Anecdotal observations suggest that they work.
That's even worse. Back-channel references are unreliable and if you ding someone on a back-channel, you better hope it's not someone like me who will litigate just to show the world the right.
I can't imagine a scenario where I wouldn't do a number of them for a key hire. Hiring managers is very hard. It's important that you make sure it's a good fit. Back-channel references are one really strong way to help make sure it's a great fit for both people. And usually, references help to surface some of the persons' strengths you might not really have known, as well as some blind spots you can code your behavior around.
Crucial. crucial. crucial.
Long term they create highly insular organisations that overpay for lower levels of talent. Worse, they tend to quickly be gamed by the type of people who tend to be vary good at getting promoted without actually being competent.
Now, I agree that unethical people do an incredible amount of damage and that you want to do everything you can to avoid hiring them. However, the data is extremely clear that once you're beyond 3 or 4 references, you're actually selecting for unethical behavior. If someone has 10 glowing references covering the past 5 years, he probably extorted his way into that. I've done my fair of "fixer" work (nothing unethical) and had a unique view into the ethical underbelly of the corporate world, and I see that shit all the time.
If someone passes an intensive back-channel reference check, it's because he's scared the living shit out of people. Do you really want that kind of toxicity in your company?
I find that hypothesis totally absurd.
I disagree. It simply means that raw follower count is no longer a usable metric to determine credibility.
There's still tons of other signals that could be harvest. Like PageRank, it seems like a better system would understand the value of each follower (instead of just counting followers/links).
But that is still a PD-type social cost: everyone loses from the fact that you have one less measurement channel than you could have.
> If neither of us refrain, the numbers become increasingly meaningless and we're left with one less way to demonstrate our credibility.
That's the problem I see with political campaigns - they are holes that waste unlimited amount of resources (labour, power, fuel) in a zero-sum game of minor real importance.
I've found Twitter to be a far more valuable experience when rather than try to accumulate followers, you follow people with similar interests and interact with them. I always follow people who follow me as a courtesy (unless they are a bot), even if it makes my followers/following ratio "look bad." The majority of the time, these followers are actually interesting to read because even if they don't make cool stuff, they retweet about people who do and I learn about many projects I would not have otherwise. When you interact with your followers, you multiply your reach by a whole new magnitude because they will often retweet to their followers (if maximizing reach is one of your goals).
Also, as a side/bonus note, one "hidden" feature of Twitter is that it has built in analytics (I say "hidden" because its not immediately obvious where to find it): http://analytics.twitter.com/
This happens in real life also. World leaders are chosen based on popularity and not credibility. That isn't to say all popular people are not credible or even most popular people are not credible. Just that there are a lot of important positions that are filled by popular or likable idiots.
This reminds my of Gary Becker's paper[1] which notes "demand by a typical consumer is positively related to quantities demanded by other consumers" as an explanation of why restaurants don't raise prices when demand is higher than supply (e.g, maintaining inertia for a 'hot' restaurant). In this context, it would appear the more popular someone appears, if only superficially, the more popular he is likely to become.
[1] http://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/PLSC541_Fall06/Becker%20J...
Well, assuming the twitter user is brand/product/company, organic followers equal to potential users. And if the fake followers help to get the organic followers (oh this brand has 50k followers, must be something compared to oh just 200 followers, they probably suck), that's profit. I guess conversion rate from twitter follower to paying user is fairly low (just a guess), but still we are talking about $5-20 investment.
After some time, you can just remove fake ones from the followers list using API, shouldn't be hard if you saved fake followers IDs somewhere after purchasing. Just like nothing happened :)
Of course from moral point of view, that's wrong. I wouldn't do that. But plenty of people would.
It's pretty damning these fake followers were able to game Klout's algorithms, since that's what Klout was trying to solve.
But "number of followers" is easy for people to understand so people will continue to consider it important.
Agreed. They must have improved their algorithm since though, surely? The algorithm at PeerIndex (European Klout competitor) was good at ignoring fake followers IIRC. See https://web.archive.org/web/20130426180937/http://www.kernel... & http://blog.peerindex.com/pornfluence-and-the-world-of-buyin... (quite a similar experiment that Gilad conducted)
Each follower counts for 1 in the total follower count.
I wonder how increased activity (in order to appear more normal) among bots will affect twitters overall performance? Will we see something (more) like email, where spam uses disproportionally more resources than legitimate email?
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/one-bands-quest-to-boost-its-open...
Maybe I should pony up $5 and buy some followers, which apparently increases the limit on following too.
edit: and 2000 users over 7 years is less than one new per day.
Each cap their fast unfollow feature to about 25 a day. So it took me about a week to get it down using all the services.
Anyway the user hostile error messages I got when I tried to add following user #2001 - instead of a suggestion like yours, perhaps - made me lose interest in the whole thing.
Too much effort. Plus, it seems twitter thinks I'm using their service in the wrong way. If the way I like to use it is wrong, I guess it's better to just stay away, makes everyone happier.
[0] https://twitter.com/TwitterForNews/status/340206438364368896
They could even pull a Google and make it a net negative for your profile to have fake followers.
Where is OP getting that from? Enhancing Bing's Knowledge graph result set. yes. Improving ranking. Not so much.
TLDR: because the majority does one thing, it can influence others;
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This one is very interesting and you can try with your friends/family.
There is a theory called Spiral of silence which observes the fact that " one opinion becomes dominant as those who perceive their opinion to be in the minority do not speak up because society threatens individuals with fear of isolation." When someone perceives his/her opinion as in the minority, he/she tends to omit or even change it. Humans fear social isolation and want to be part of strong groups, those which will win, the majority (even so, in researches there is always 5% of individuals who do not omit or change opinions: they tend to be the opinion leaders).
In a macro level, it can influence voting results, laws to be adopted or who's the next president.
You can feel the micro level of it by trying this: 01. Invite to go to the movies that friend who is really optimistic about some movie (he/she read good reviews, loved the trailler, liked the director/actors, etc.) 02. Invite other two or three friends and tell them to show disappointment about the movie after the exhibition (regardless of their true opinion about it). 03. After the exhibition, ask your optimistic friend about his/her opinion. He/she will probably say nice things 04. (You and your other friends) Say things like "I was expecting more", "I don't think it was that great", "It could be better", "The negative reviews were right" 05. Watch your friend's reaction 06. If he/she doesn't change his/her opinion right away, ask again for it the day after.
He/she will probably start to feel uncomfortable with his/her own opinion and constrained. Maybe he/she will try to convince you (then keep strong, no need to argue back and try not to offend him/her), maybe he/she will just start to agree with you all. But it's very likely that your friend changes his/her opinion by the day after...
...especially if he/she doesn't read/talk about it with anyone else. This is important because the Spiral of Silence is all about perceptions, and not true reality. Your friend must think that the majority didn't like the movie. If he/she finds out you and your tricky friends are minority, he/she can go back to his/her original opinion.
And that's the other interesting thing about this theory: sometimes what is perceived as majority is, actually, just a loud minority. Think about it.