I thought the same thing at first.

But to analyze it as an experiment, you really need to determine some objective criteria for success and failure. Each individual may have different criteria, but it's important to come up with the criteria first and then compare them to the results later.

Even then, it's unlikely to change many minds. With the economy, it's too easy to find some exceptional event that you can blame for the results not matching your prediction.

I think we just have to accept that science can't answer everything, and the economy is probably one of those things that can't be answered.