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Comment by pmoods | Hacker News Reader

This is awesome but the predictiveness is quite unpredictive. I guess that's what happens when you quant everything

Or it's what happens when you look at data in the simplest way possible. We know there will be upsets, we know some players play better together than others, etc. This could have been enriched to show something quite interesting.

On a side note, personally, I think England will surprise everyone by making it to the finals.

I wish I could share your optimism about England.

You mean out of the group stage? That wouldn't be too much of a surprise; oddschecker.com has England and Uruguay about equally likely to qualify, with Italy a bit ahead. And if Luis Suarez isn't fully fit, England have every chance.

Current odds for England reaching the final are about 14/1, i.e. about 6.7%. So it would be a surprise!

Odds to reach the quarter finals are roughly 7/4 or about 36%.

We shouldn't forget about Costa Rica too. They finished above Mexico in qualifying, they have a decent team and they will probably have a slight climate advantage in the games at Forteleza and Belo Horizonte (vs. England).

I wish I could also share the optimism about England. If we do get out of the group stages we may have to play Brazil or Spain in the quarter finals.

I'm Uruguayan, and I think it will be very hard for us to get out of the group stage, and if Suarez isn't fully fit, it will be even harder.

We're fielding a slow team, with several veterans who are at a speed disadvantage (I wish Lugano would retire), and a midfield more suited for counterattacking than for ball dominance. Our strikers, if fit, are the best duo in the tournament though :) .

I think Costa Rica will be the kingmaker, whomever falters against Costa Rica is out.

and be beaten by Portugal, on penalties, no less.

England will make it just like every other World Cup except 1966.

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