A plane has been in space for 500 days
techly.com.au
techly.com.au
"Plenty of conspiracy theorist have posed the question of X-37B carrying a nuclear payload, to guarantee a ‘first strike’ opportunity (or to have a counter-option in place).
If you have any hope for humanity, that can’t be right. The US is a signatory to The Space Treaty, which is no joke. Space-based weapons of mass destruction are banned."
That notion of being signatory to treaties still having some weight is so quaint. NPT, CTBT, Kyoto...
The problem with that theory is that being in a particular orbit locks you into a very limited choice of targets. The X-37B is unlikely to have much in the way of cross range capability, so any potential target would have to be within a narrow band of it's orbital track. Also suppose you want to hit a target and you just flew over it, you'll have to wait a full orbit before you can strike, which is likely to take a lot longer than launching an ICBM. It's even worse than that though because if your orbit is inclined to the equator (required if your target is not on the equator), the earth rotates under you so any target you fly over on this orbit will have moved and won't be under your orbital track on your next orbit. You might have to wait dozens of orbits before you fly over it again.
Unless you have hundreds of warheads in orbit, or are prepared to wait days between attacks, the orbital weapons platform concept is a non-starter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-37#Development
You can estimate engineering limits from the rocket equation, delta-v = effective exhaust velocity * ln(mass ratio). In orbit, it probably uses hypergolic propellants, likely N2O4 and one of the hydrazines. These have exhaust velocities of about 3,350 m/s in vacuum. So, with the orbiter weighing 4.99 tonnes loaded, you could guestimate figures from 2,300 m/s (50% fuel fraction, payload+orbiter = 2.50 tonnes) up to 7,600 m/s (90% fuel fraction, payload+orbiter = 500 kg, if that's possible or useful).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_rocket_propellants#Bipr...
For comparison, the far larger (~100 tonne) space shuttle orbiter can do 300 m/s of delta-v, carrying about 20 tonnes of monomethylhydrazine + N2O4. (Note that's a factor of two lower than what the rocket equation allows; I don't know why that is).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Orbital_Maneuver...
NB I wouldn't recommend looking this up on Google as nearly every description gives away in the twist in the ending.
The fact that the US can do this because they are beyond being disciplined does not make it right. If a country enters into an international treaty after prolonged negotiations and influencing the terms of the treaty the that country ought to be bound by signing the treaty.
If that's not acceptable then you should either not exert influence over the process or you should internally negotiate the mandate with which the representatives of the country are being sent to the treaty negotiations with ratification being a formality after the negotiations end and the treaty is signed.
The current situation is one in which internal politics are used for international advantage, a questionable practice at best.
Legislative action was involved in ratification of Kyoto by France[1], for example, as well as Japan[2], Russia[3], Serbia[4], and Germany[5]. I found all of this with just five minutes of Googling. I had difficulty finding a story noting the final ratification by the UK, but one assumes ordinary UK rules[6] were followed for Kyoto.
If you want to attack the US -- and as an American, I don't blame you a bit -- you should just be honest and admit you're mad about the result, not the method.
[1] http://legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=JORFTEXT00...
[2] http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/data/pdf/128.pdf
[3] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3943727.stm
[4] http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2007&mm=09&dd=...
Afghanistan, Sudan & the USA are the only countries that did not. I don't particularly blame Afghanistan and Sudan for obvious reasons but the USA has no excuse.
If they were considering placing nuclear missiles in orbit, they would almost certainly withdraw from the Outer Space Treaty first.
I'm wondering if there is any economic rationale for doing so - I would think that sub based missiles would be cheaper than placing them in orbit.
There fixed that for you. (ref: http://www.laetusinpraesens.org/docs10s/unespion.php )
Under the NPT signatories are allowed to enrich and stockpile nuclear fuel for civilian purposes. Under this restriction, states can go almost nuclear.
The tech and materials for civilian and military nuclear use is similar enough that a country that can do power independently would be able to produce bombs within 2-5 years. Some countries have a "threshold strategy" where they stay within the bounds of the treaty but maintain an ability to withdraw and make up ground as quickly as possible. Japan & Australia, for example.
Last time I checked, it was Russia, India and China that ignore that. The US definitely never ignored the NPT either.
It is not a first strike system. That's silly. Any use of such a strike system that has anything to do with nukes will result in massive retaliation from any enemy worth using it on (Russia, China specifically). The US doesn't need small scale first strike options. If you're going to hit China or Russia with nukes, you better destroy everything in the first wave, and that means hundreds of nukes; and it wouldn't just be China or Russia, you have to destroy both, for the same reason that Britain would likely nuke Russia, if Russia preemptively nuked the US.
Reasoning I say spy even though one commenter pointed out that there are spy satellites in orbit is that with the reusability of the craft the cost of getting newer and better spy tech into space faster is helpful on a few levels.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty
Also, I'm not sure that having a weapon in orbit would actually be any better than existing ICBMs.
Considering just the last, an orbit in LEO takes about 90 minutes. Even if the target is close to the plane's orbital trajectory, that's an average of about 45 minutes to target. An ICBM takes about 30 minutes. So I can't think of any real advantage for an orbital nuclear weapon over even a small ICBM fleet.
There is very little you could practically do to defend against such a thing. Even if you could reliably know every time the host vehicle was going to pass overhead (unlikely) and send the relevant leaders to bunkers (impractical), that's no use -- that little warhead could have been released at any time with just enough extra fuel to go into a slightly different orbit, leaving you with no idea when a strike might happen.
Also, it's fairly easy to work around a possible decapitation strike - have the political leaders tell the military what to do in the event they are killed:
The UK's strategy is unique, and, for the same reason, probably ineffective. Nobody else uses it because nobody else is willing to leave the matter in military hands. So long as a zombie Margaret Thatcher doesn't reclaim the PM's office, I doubt anyone believes that the letters instruct the captains to do anything other than report to an ally.
I guess both the UK and the Soviets were terrified (for good reasons) of decapitation strikes - the UK because we are so close to the USSR and the Soviets because they knew how keen the US military was on "a Sunday punch" attack (as LeMay called it).
Yes, it's possible to shift the plane of the orbit when over, say, the South Pacific, and get an element of surprise. "Just enough" is still quite a bit. The Shuttle and Soyuz use air breaking, and take about an hour from the deorbit burn to landing.
Any country that can detect an ICBM launch, with 30 minutes of warning, can likely also detect the ionization trail of a craft/vehicle/weapon going through reentry. Also, said craft won't be able to use any external targeting guidance like GPL until after getting through the blackout.
If I read http://www.spaceflight101.com/soyuz-tma-10m-mission-updates.... right, there's at least 10 and more likely 15 minutes of warning from ionization trail detection to hitting the ground. By comparison, https://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publications/sgs/pdf/3_1-2gron... lists a sub-launched Trident as being able to hit a target 3,000 km away in 9.8 minutes.
Also, it's easier to launch a missile from a sub, and easier to test sub launches than it is to test satellite-based attack deorbits.
We know when new satellites go up, we just don't know their exact orbital characteristics until somebody actually spots them. They are then routinely lost again, either because their orbit was modified, or whoever spotted it didn't get its orbital characteristics quite right.
They're also a heck of a lot bigger than tactical warheads.
You don't really have to shift the orbital plane of the warhead at all, just raise or lower the orbit a hair so that after a while, the warhead's location has little if any discernible link to the host vehicle's location. Even if you did go for a plane change, it's really not "quite a bit", it's a question of how long you're willing to wait.
The blackout period is overblown. Look up TDRSS -- the Shuttle didn't have a blackout period at all for most of its operational life, thanks to the mind-blowing strategy of... not trying to broadcast downward through the ionization layer.
Soyuz is also a lot bigger than a tactical warhead. The comparison is off by probably 2+ orders of magnitude.
And "we know" about orbital elements because of hobbyists. I assume that major nation states - those who have satellites in orbit which can detect ICBM and SLBM launches - also have their own space tracking systems. Eg, the Russian SKKP.
TDRSS - sweet! Yes, my primary interest in space flight was during the early shuttle years, back when there was a 30 minute blackout.
Still, can that hole be enough to provide accurate position targeting data? It doesn't seem like there's enough for triangulation, only communication.
Your point about size is completely apropos. There are too many things I don't know for me to guess how to scale down. Oh! What about using a Genesis comparison? http://genesismission.jpl.nasa.gov/gm2/mission/history.htm shows a reentry diagram, with STRATCOM (Strategic Air Command) able to detect the incoming probe at 32,000 km (and potentially up to 60,000 km).
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/192937main_genesis_reentry.pdf says:
> This experiment demonstrated that a simple forward scatter radar system utilizing TV transmitters as the illumination source could detect the ionization trail left by the Genesis spacecraft as well as the ionization around the spacecraft itself—the “head echo” in meteor radar parlance.
What it's saying is that the ionization trail is easy enough that amateurs do it often, using a reflected signal from regular TV broadcasts.
What I can't find is how long it took to get from a visible plasma trail to when it crash landed. That would be roughly the same time it would take for a re-entering warhead to get to its target. (It came in faster than LEO speed, but its tumble would have slowed it down more than a designed warhead.)
My point stands that it's easier to test SLBMs than anything in LEO.
Good thing it doesn't forbid Kinetic Kill Weapons. The kind of thing you need to keep in-orbit for long periods of time.
No/little launch signature, dynamic positions, and a quicker response than any ICBM.
(personally, I think it's a spy rig)
From what I can see it would be a lot slower than most ICBMs as you have to wait until it's orbit passes over or is close to the thing you want to hit.
This article seems to have details of its orbit:
http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2742/x37b-orbit-fo...
"In the case of the system mentioned in the 2003 USAF report above, a 6.1 m × 0.3 m tungsten cylinder impacting at Mach 10 has a kinetic energy equivalent to approximately 11.5 tons of TNT (or 7.2 tons of dynamite). The mass of such a cylinder is itself greater than 9 tons, so it is clear that the practical applications of such a system are limited to those situations where its other characteristics provide a decisive advantage - a conventional bomb/warhead of similar weight to the tungsten rod, delivered by conventional means, provides similar destructive capability and is a far more practical method. Some other sources suggest a speed of 36,000 ft/s (11,000 m/s),[8] which for the aforementioned rod would amount to a kinetic energy equivalent to 120 tons of TNT or 0.12 kt. With 6-8 satellites on a given orbit, a target could be hit within 12–15 minutes from any given time, less than half the time taken by an ICBM and without the warning. Such a system could also be equipped with sensors to detect incoming anti-ballistic missile-type threats and relatively light protective measures to use against them (e.g. Hit-To-Kill Missiles or megawatt-class chemical laser)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
It's not the idea to have one single bombardment weapon, but many in an orbit. That's what makes it a quick reaction. A single unit could likely be a testing platform for such a system.
But if you are hitting first and by surprise, you might be able to coordinate around this limitation. Once the object is in the right place it has the delivery speed advantage.
That's kind of the point too. Suborbital ballistic missiles can reach any point on Earth. Putting them in orbit wastes energy and requires significantly larger rockets for the same payloads. Not to mention stuff in orbit is impossible to hide.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardment_...
Having your weapon sitting in a entirely predictable permanent orbit rather defeats the purpose.
I find these kinds of treaties idiotic. Can't do that or. Or what? Who exactly is going to do something when the world police breaks the law? The people? Yeah right.
"Absolutely, we in the 67th Orbital Wing operate the X-37B, but it's there to fly missions for the National Space Operations Office"
"The National Space Operations Office's mission is to develop operational capabilities in support of our country's strategic priorities, as implemented by the Near Space Command."
"NSPACECOM is proud to be providing this unique Earth-to-Orbit capability in support of front-line forces. The X-37B is currently deployed with the 67th Orbital Wing. You'd have to ask them for details of the current mission."
As it is, the headline suggests that some plane accidentally crossed the Kármán Line, has been floating out there for nearly 2 years, and not even the pilot or ATC could work out how it happened.
At least one of the national newspapers in Norway found a way around the "need" for larger letters: "War type". Can't get larger letters in? Use a suitably aggressive looking font, and you'll make foreigners think you're writing about war when you're writing about a tax increase or the latest minor political scandal.
It’s versatile, and has worked well enough that Boeing is contracted to create the next model, the X-37C. It will be at least 65% larger and have the ability to carry up to six astronauts, while operating unmanned.
Space X reusable rockets and this reusable vehicle seems a good fit.
1 - http://www.stripes.com/news/air-force/air-force-spending-60-...
The success of SpaceX and all the private / not-in-military-industrial-complex companies is a direct threat to the budgets and livelihoods of those in the military-industrial complex.
This is a demonstration of "whatever they can do, we can do better"
SpaceX is building launch and deployment vehicles. While I have no doubt that this plane could deploy satellites, it doesn't take 500 days to do that. There are clearly other goals.
If Elon can demonstrate relaunch capabilities for a fraction of the normal cost, then the big question from Congress will be "So why are we paying you guys so much".
This is irrespective of whether its reusable space launches, or smaller "mission focused" space vehicles.
Any project that is capable of providing an answer to that question is worth tens of billions in continued funding - so the X-37B could be empty and it would still be a worthwhile investment (it isn't empty, of course, but it's value is budgetary defence, not national defence).
All of which to my cyncial mind is far more realistic than a secret project to put nukes in orbit.
If you think a project aimed at (in relation to the current space industries) mass-produced cost-effective commercial launch vehicles is a threat to small-production-run projects aimed at defense missions, I think you have some horizon-broadening to do.
SpaceX is, for the most part, just taking well-trod ground and trying to make it more efficient. Classified defense stuff, on the other hand, tends to break a lot of new ground and do exotic things the civilian market hasn't even considered enough to debate whether they're possible.
It'd be kind of like someone working on a cheaper, more efficient jet airliner, and you coming in and saying "see, this is a threat to stuff like the SR-71 because it's so much cheaper than all the bloated contractors!"
No, I am not a fanboy, and yes I shall broaden my horizons.
Where do you recommend one get a intro to the "state-of-the-art" for space capabilities? What are the current parameters?
I had presumed there was one simple limiting factor - the rocket pushing you to orbit. Everything else seems like noise in that O(n) calculation. If there are envelopes being pushed, what impact do they have outside of that?
And, thanks for answering.
Also, I'd argue that yes, the people who feel a need to inject Elon/SpaceX/Tesla/etc. into even the most tangentially-related threads are indeed fanboys, and are doing it out of fanboyism.
Anyway - my first few googles lead me to the livingmoon where a seemingly well sourced article on shuttle military missions is on the same site as proof Santa Claus exists.
So from wikipedia / NASA.gov there are some reliable figures but we stand at 11 classified missions, 25 public and this seems to be still the most useful overview http://www.airspacemag.com/space/secret-space-shuttles-35318... In short the NRO / DOD made the shuttle design cope with larger payloads, different orbits, but still the same essential missions - put spy satellites up, preferably in a way thay cannot easily be tracked.
My issue is that it does still seem to be launching satellites - in unusual orbits, yes, in secret and possibly in some other clever way - but the shuttle is just a clever satellite delivery system - it does not seem to be being used itself as a defence system.
That might not be the point I grant you, but do please point me in the right directions.
Ok - now I am intrigued as to what they are doing.