The Math of the Fastest Human Alive | Hacker News Reader

The Math of the Fastest Human Alive

scienceblogs.com

21 pointsrobg9 comments

I used to think that we were pretty lame compared to other species, until I discovered that because of our skin, we are the best at cooling our bodies. That's why in the midday heat of the savannah, the only animal walking around is gonna be a human.

That simple regression does not indicate anything...the author does not show that the data follows an exponential; he just imposes it. What about a non-parametric regression? What about structural breaks in the time series?

Indeed, fitting a line would have demonstrated the main point just as well (that Usain Bolt is way outside the normal progression of the record).

Of course, it would have also implied that by the year 3000 some guy will be finishing before he starts, but from the data given that's no sillier a conclusion than the one given.

PS. Seriously though, well done Mr Bolt. I'm not usually impressed by athletes, but this guy really seems to be way out of the norm.

What about nutrition, fitness, and performance enhancing chemicals, legal or otherwise?

I'm not saying Bolt is a User, but I think it's safe to say he's applying every advantage available.

That would be the "structural breaks" idea. The process in the last 80 years that generated the downward trend in times has changed recently due to technology, etc.

He plainly justified an asymptote: "there must be some limit where humans can not run any faster". The exponential has this property and is simple. There also looks to be a good r^2.

I thought this paper, mentioned in the comments, was a lot more interesting:

http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=95436

Argues that extreme value theory predicts the best time for 100m dash in the near future is 9.51 sec.

It's an interesting post (and more interesting discussion). I think this visualization http://bit.ly/p2T73 shows just how amazing Bolt is. I also can't believe someone can move faster than 10m a second. Just close your eyes and think about that. 1 second. More than 30 feet. Wow.

Usain Bolt Celebrates Early ... Very Early

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzSpPaCIG0g

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