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Based on computing power alone you may be right, but human brains are idiosyncratic to say the least. While on one hand we are simple neural net algorithms, on the other we are dirty hacks woven together throughout evolution. Even given the former, if the latter lags behind AI will continue to feel distinctly unhuman.

I bet we'll produce a really interesting brain within the next ten years that doesn't seem human at all.

Really? Because not even the Kurzweil (who numbers among the more optimistic where this is concerned) agrees with that timeline.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/singularity-q-a

1. Ray Kurzweil is not psychic.

2. We now have detailed maps of parts of the human and mouse brains on the bio side as well as working AI-like systems (Siri, Watson, etc.) on the tech side. Who's to say the intersection of the two fields won't result in a human-like AI in 10 years?

3. The "law of accelerating returns" may work faster than anticipated.

2 DiabloD3: I'll bet against you anytime ;) It is essentially the same as betting against any other extinction event, so it'd be a safe bet.

will you take bitcoin? :)