Bayesian predictions of Eurovision finishing positions

Last year predictions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5723572 (55 points, 58 days ago, 22 comments)

Last^2 year predictions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4031007 (65 points, 712 days ago, 20 comments)

(I don’t think this is a dupe, but the comments of the previous years may be interesting to understand the details of the constestfor the people (like me) that live outside Europe.)

I hope to see a follow up, with this graph and the actual results superimposed.