Tesla Q1 earnings report [pdf] | Hacker News Reader

Tesla Q1 earnings report [pdf]

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I had no idea getting a license plate for a vehicle in Shanghai was so expensive. Apparently they use an auction system: "Shanghai officials have put in place a complicated—and expensive—process to purchase the right to add a car to the often-gridlocked roads of this city of 23 million people. To register for the license auction, prospective car buyers must put down 2,000 yuan as good faith money. In exchange, they get a disc loaded with software they can use to bid online. After a couple of rounds of offers, the government figures out the highest price it can charge to completely sell out the year’s new allotment of licenses. Lottery participants who had bid at least that much then get to pay for their plates." [0]

0: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-25/in-china-the...

I wonder what the software on that disc does given that it just bids online.

Probably just a 2000 yuan access key

It sounds like an OpenIPO auction [1]. All the software would have to do is submit the highest price you're willing to pay into a database, which is then used to determine the highest price they can sell all the licenses at.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenIPO

Wait till you see Singapore's COE prices... To get a car there, you first pay 50-60K USD for a certificate, then you can go to the dealership and buy your car.

Yikes that's scary: http://www.sgcarmart.com/news/writeup.php?AID=70

A car that can often cost over 100k USD.

100K USD only gets you a Toyota. Double that for an E-class.

Does the price scale linearly or is there a high barrier to just get any kind of car anyways? If Singapore puts up a high initial barrier, the cost of the car is sort of secondary, or do they also have high import duties and luxury taxes on top of that?

If its just high registration costs, you'd expect to see a lot of higher end cars since there is not much point to pay $50K just to buy a $20K car.

It's mostly the import taxes... A Ferrari 458 will run you almost 720K USD (about 3x of what it is in the US). And you see them quite frequently.

China has high taxes on luxury cars, so they really are 2 or 3X the cost of the states (especially if imported). However, at least outside of Shanghai, registration costs are low (well, in Beijing we have the lottery), so you'll still see a lot of low end Chinese brands flying around.

When I was in Singapore, I got the impression that it was very different there, all the cars were quite nice.

Yes, I knew this 10 years ago in college. And Singapore is considered a pioneer in intelligent transportation back then. Not sure if this is still the case.

Still is. In fact you don't even need a car to get around the country. People there get a car because they can.

Why would you want a car in Singapore?! how much would you pay to the occasional cab?

just checked online, if i walked from downtown to the airport it would be 2h :)

Status.

Until now, Tesla was not considered an electric car in China for purposes of getting a license plate outside of the auction. They used this to encourage Shanghai consumers to buy domestic EVs. The law's intent at least appeared to encourage local jobs. Since Tesla found a reasonable way around this, sales should grow remarkably. Tesla is planning local production for that market, which probably explains the change in policy.

Also, most people who have cars in these markets prefer to be driven, rather than driving themselves. Vehicles for the Chinese market tend to emphasize back seat comfort and features. Tesla will likely try to make their features more back seat compatible.

> Also, most people who have cars in these markets prefer to be driven, rather than driving themselves. Vehicles for the Chinese market tend to emphasize back seat comfort and features. Tesla will likely try to make their features more back seat compatible.

This is definitely not true in Shanghai, where most people drive their Mercedes, BMWs, and Audi's by themselves (besides, hiring a driver full time in SH is at least 8K RMB/month now, the days of drivers willing to work for 1K a month are over). If Tesla is wise, they'll go after the faster "drive yourself" market than the high-official "be driven" market.

In secondary markets, drivers are more popular, but even then the market of self-driven cars is growing much faster.

I'm from Shanghai, ironically, most of the "out of town" license plates you see there are actually results Shanghai residents buying cars from nearby provinces. In order to counter this, there are rules/restrictions against out of town license plates such as during rush hour or holidays their access to highway is limited, are not allowed to park in certain areas, etc etc. It's all kind of crazy actually.

That's Yuan very high price...

Took delivery of a Tesla yesterday, only a few weeks after getting a comparably priced Mercedes Benz for my wife. I will just say that I think the Tesla money is well spent and the MB money is wasted on a company that makes a nice car but seems to be stuck 10+ years in the past on a lot of fronts.

The Tesla costs too much but it feels like the best way to support getting our planet off of petroleum which is the cause of so many problems. So I don't begrudge the price.

It's damn fun to drive. I won't hold my breath for any of the incumbents to do a decent job of making an electric car - maybe Porsche.

The electronics alone make the MB look ancient. The MB nav isn't touch screen, uses a ludicrous scroll wheel and is almost useless. Meanwhile, I've got an enormous touch screen with a pinch/zoom google maps system. This part has nothing to do with being an electric car.

If they can come out with a more affordable suv or sedan I think they will change the world of cars and driving. I'm thinking that all the rest of the car companies are basically hoping they die and they can go back to business as usual with the oil companies as best friends.

The Germans will say you need to take your eyes off the road for far too long to be safe in order to operate a touch screen, compared to using a scroll wheel with tactile feedback........

Not true in Porsche's case, certainly.

Until they will start using touchscreens and then all of a sudden they are perfectly safe...

Tesla is taking a beating in after hours trading despite beating projections. What's the reason?

They beat low-balled estimates but not the "whisper" numbers, increasing costs, cash-flow negative for 2014, ongoing share dilution, etc.

The stock was priced for perfection, so it will feel downward pressure on every bump in the road.

slowing sales in the US. They are also slow to deliver their lower priced car which may be moot by the time they do with all the offerings coming down the pipe from established players.

The industry does not simply sit and wait for innovation, they don't bet the farm on one technology, they spread the risk across multiple engine solutions. Until battery technology gives us very fast recharge, average range, and longevity, range extender and hybrids will rule the roost.

First Model S sales decline since 2012, and worst free cash flow (negative too) since Q1 2012 despite last two Qs had positive cash flow.

One can argue how meaningful these are but it is headline glances and lack of strength in other momentum stocks that make first moves.

Some say the lack of strength in momo stocks is related to the alibaba IPO but we have seen sector rotation which may undermine this theory.

After hours trading can be subject to the whims of less-seasoned investors. Consequently, veterans on Wall Street sometimes deride after hours trading as "amateur hour."

Buy $TSLA for earnings in 2020, not Q1 2014.

They are already priced for their earnings in 2020. Buy them for their earning in 2050.

I'm buying them tomorrow to gambool, bc price will go back up

Feels like buying bitcoin really

Well, this is implied, since if the price were based on Q1 2014 earnings the shares would be worth precisely zero.

What are your earnings projections for 2020?

Actually Tesla would have to pay you to own the stock, since they lost money (negative earnings).

It depends on the accounting method.

> Q1 non-GAAP net income was $17 million, or $0.12 per share based on 140.2 million diluted shares, while Q1 GAAP net loss was $50 million or $(0.40) per share.

It will also get more confusing soon thanks to the new lease program:

> For leased vehicles, we will recognize lease revenue over the term of the lease in both our GAAP and non-GAAP financials. In contrast, automotive OEMs recognize full revenue for the price of the vehicle, even if that vehicle is eventually leased, because the vehicle is first sold to an independent dealer.

Non-GAAP is not an accounting method. GAAP is an accounting method (set of rules), non-GAAP says they have done something different.

Non-GAAP is certainly an accounting method. It's especially common for tech companies, because employee stock options are a big cost in GAAP even though the bank account balances don't change.

Also in Tesla's case is their buyback guarantee which is popular in the US market. It's effectively a lease and under GAAP rules that means you don't recognize the full amount of revenue at the time of sale and instead have to do it month by month. That makes a giant difference in revenue recorded even though they have all the cash up front.

If net profit is more important than gross revenue, why are companies valued at multiple of revenue instead of their profit?

Net profit is not always more important than gross revenue (see Amazon) particularly for high growth companies. Growing companies should be re-investing their profits in continued expansion.

Profit is the primary objective of a company. Gross revenue is only interesting if there is reason to believe that more of it can be turned into profit, expanding margins.

Companies can be valued after many criteria: innovation, market share, revenue, leadership etc. But the value of all of them is in their potential for generating future profits.

The other fundamental method for valuation is to look at the balance sheet and value the company by net assets.

Because investors have no clue how to value growth companies, because interest rates are low and because some prominent growth companies with no profits have been on a non-stop* share price rampage for 14 years. The revenue multiple pricing of Amazon, Facebook, Twitter et.al. is cargo cult finance. No one really knows how much these companies will eventually earn, so some commentators have come up with a plausible after-the-fact metric that sounds good in a soundbite.

A company is worth the present-value adjusted sum of all its future earnings, and that is it. How to guess, discount and risk-adjust this number is a different question.

Uh, price-to-sales is pretty rare. "PE" or price-to-earnings is much more common. But a high growth company will likely prioritize growth over profits so PE not important.

Tesla shares are down 7% in afterhours trading on this report

buy on the dip

Down 6% Its a buying opportunity.

Be careful, the whole market is getting wrecked.

that is do to Fed comments, has nothing to do with long term

Definitely a buying opportunity for out of the money puts last week. Which are now very much in the money puts :)

Have you heard the phrase "Don't try to catch a falling knife"?

down 6% isn't exactly a falling knife scenario though.

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