100 Supercharger Stations
teslamotors.com
teslamotors.com
* You'll have at least 20 minutes of waiting for your car to charge, during which time Tesla could be selling you snacks and/or fast food. Filling stations in most countries already follow that proven business model.
* These charging stations have solar panels on the roof, so they presumably already have the necessary inverters and whatever other infrastructure to pump electricity back to the grid. Tesla could make some deals to put panels up on nearby buildings who could save on capital costs by just piggybacking off Tesla. They could become a power utility company over time.
* Teslas are quite expensive, so Tesla owners (and therefore drivers) are generally affluent, which are the kind of customers local businesses would want to attract. So having a charging station nearby could be something malls might even pay for or want to subsidise. Similarly the land around a supercharger station in what is otherwise "the middle of nowhere" could become significantly more valuable, so if Tesla purchases extra cheap land around stations placed along interstate highways they could stand to make quite a bit of money selling that to property developers afterwards.
I guess what I'm saying is if Tesla plays their cards right, then Tesla cars could be like giving away razor handles for cheap.
That works out to about $250,000, or about $10 per Tesla Model S sold to date. Early days and all, but it looks like about $100† tacked on to the selling price of the car covers lifetime supercharger network power use. Capital expenditures to build them probably dwarf their electric bills.
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† To the limits of Fermi Estimation
It's a lot lower than I would guess.
Out of curiosity, what do you think needs to change for them to make sense for most people?
I personally feel the Model S has made an enormous step towards "makes sense" for a lot of people, and I have to think the X will "make sense for most"
Some background: The bulk electricity market (at least in NY state) is run as a giant linear programming problem to satisfy the demand for all regions with a set of supply curves that suppliers bid into the market. They all get paid the same price that the marginal watt (the last watt you need to buy to meet demand) costs.
So, natural gas turbines, who can turn on and off relatively quickly, will bid high and are likely to be the marginal watt. Nuclear plants bid very low and occasionally negative because it actually costs them money to shut down because they then can't start up again soon. So, they want to be sure that they are going to be scheduled.
This is oversimplified and ignores the difference between the day-ahead market and real-time market, products like regulation (we pay money for people to be ready to turn on/off and keep things at 60Hz), and inter-zone transmission)
The point is that a nuclear plant can't suddenly turn on in response to a spike in demand from quickly-charging car batteries. A bigass flywheel or a bigass battery (shameless plug for Sadoway: http://www.ambri.com/) might though.
It's an insanely smart offering.
It's admittedly quite a bit more than the supercharger equivalent, but it's far from infinite.
removed my incorrect math re: dollars of fuel per engine
5,000 gallons per cylinder * 6 cylinders * $4 per gallon = $120,000
If you're putting 5,000 gallons through each of six cylinders at $4 per gallon, that works out to $120,000 of gas. Certainly outweighs the cost of the engine by a decent factor.
I still agree with your conclusion though... Capital still dwarfs energy, even if they pay several times what you estimated.
Up until 2012, demand charges from Souther California Edison kicked in at 20 kW at a rate of $17 per kW. One of the first 50 kW quick-chargers in LA county was shut down for months after the owner realized that operating it would tack on an extra $1000 to his monthly bill.
> The network is already robust enough to support long-distance drives on the most popular routes across America, wherever it be a cross country trip from Los Angeles to New York, an East Coast jaunt from Rhode Island to the southern tip of Florida, or an epic 12,000-mile journey to every corner of the United States.
I'm not sure if I've just been out of the loop, or if they aren't doing a good enough job pimping their supercharger network. This removes one of the perceived problems with electric cars - long road trips. Does anyone here have real world experience doing a long road trip with a Tesla S, using the supercharger network?
It looks like you can do cross country road trips if you take a specific route through the middle of the country. By the end of this year, it looks much better.
The norther route puts you close to Minneapolis and Madison / Milwaukee. Larger populations, also more liberal, generally, than a slightly more southern route.
The I-80 corridor fills in if you go to the end of 2015.
Prioritization.
Maybe South Dakota is cheaper than Nebraska. Or they wanted to show that you could go to the National Parks.
Episode 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou46vykyIAk
I was more thinking of a road trip article, where the travel itself is the focus of the article. Is the car comfortable on long trips? Are the superchargers always easy to find? What sort of characters and people do you meet at supercharger stations? Did the forced longer stops make the journey better or worse?
It's a big difference to 'who got there faster'. That would be a foregone conclusion.
Here's the original article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/automobiles/after-a-chargi...
And here's some coverage of the controversy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/automobiles/after-a-chargi...
I'd love to see their method of analysis on this...
The supercharger in Folsom enables Tahoe, and was one of the first to go in. But because of the cold and the elevation change, you have to stay there for more than 2 nights to make that one practical (or stay at the Ritz, which still seems to be the only hotel with >110v charging.)
- Fast refuel time (Only a few minutes to fill a tank)
- Ubiquitous (Gas stations everywhere)
- Standardized (Gas station nozzle works in any car)
EV is currently very weak in these areas. Recharge time is orders of magnitude longer than filling a gas tank. The common expected use case is to charge at home overnight, but this excludes a huge fraction of the population (anyone living in an apartment/condo). Apartment owners have little incentive to install chargers. And there's a standardization problem. Nissan Leafs cannot charge at Superchargers. There's a lot of fragmentation in this field.
The fuel cell cars are avoiding these issues and they may take a lot of the market that EV currently doesn't serve well. Hydrogen stations are often publicly funded and not tied to a specific auto manufacturer. Refuel time is similar to gas stations. And they are slowly building more and more hydrogen stations (in California). It seems California is being used as a test market for fuel cell cars. If it succeeds, then there could be a strong nationwide push. To someone living in an apartment/condo, fuel cell cars have a lot of advantages.
Many assume that the EV is the successor to the ICE vehicle. But that may not be true.
EV charging stations are ubiquitous. Fuel cell fillers are outrageously expensive.
All US cars can charge with J1772. CHadEMO and SuperChargers have the same power output, so adapters will be possible and reasonable.
Oh, and hydrogen-fueled cars are far less efficient wells-to-wheels than electrically-fueled. We can't afford to be paying more for fuel.
http://shop.teslamotors.com/collections/model-s-charging-ada...
I own an RV with a propane tank, and propane storage and filling equipment is more complicated than the petrol equivalent, and a propane fill is always done by a trained person -- no self-serve allowed! Hydrogen would be many times more complex.
Also re standardization, there is a standard electrical plug use at all EV charge points, it fits my Toyota plug-in hybrid, a Nissan Leaf, or a Tesla. I am looking forward to stopping at a Tesla superstation with my Prius, I can probably get a full charge in 5-6 minutes...
This means you cannot charge non-Tesla EVs at a supercharger. Sorry.
Also, just use common sense for a moment. Look how much flak Tesla is getting for their little battery fires. Do you have any idea what destruction compressed hydrogen gas is capable of causing? Not to mention all of the issues with storing hydrogen in the first place (hydrogen cracking).
I'm not a betting man, but I'll take any bets on hydrogen fuel cell cars becoming mainstream.
Ubiquity is being solved rapidly. Electric has a huge advantage here because the necessary infrastructure is almost zero. A charging station costs a couple thousand bucks, and plug it into the grid and you're ready to go. This isn't just theoretical. In my area (fairly affluent but not incredibly techy DC suburb) there are already a bunch of electric car charging stations available. The local Walgreens has one, for some incomprehensible reason. I've never seen it used, but it's there, ready and waiting.
I think recharge time is by far the biggest factor here. If recharging was fast, the rapidly growing network of chargers would make it practical to own an electric car with a Tesla-level range even for someone living in an apartment or similar. You'd have to recharge more often than you'd fill up with a gas car, but on the other hand you could just park in a recharging-equipped parking spot while you go out to a restaurant or go shopping, making it part of your regular routine.
In terms of practicality, it seems that the question is whether hydrogen can attain ubiquity before electric can attain fast recharging times. With only a couple dozen hydrogen stations in the US currently, and at $500,000+ for the necessary equipment, I doubt we'll see ubiquitous hydrogen anytime soon. With Tesla superchargers already providing an 80% charge in 40 minutes, I'd put my bet on fast battery charging winning the race.
I don't think that's the case. I believe the two major reasons are simply:
- superchargers are 120kW, ChaDeMo is 50kW. - Tesla wants to retain the ability to iterate to figure out what works well, and what is required, before standardization
At this stage in the market, electric car companies are much better off co-operating rather than competing. I'm willing to bet that every Leaf sold increases Tesla's sales in the medium term rather than decreases it. The Leaf owner is a first adopter, who demonstrates to their friends and families that electric cars are practical. Not to mention that Leaf to Tesla is a common upgrade path as income, needs and/or family size grows.
Hydrogen will end up being barely cheaper than gas, too. And I don't think it will be that much more environmentally safe than gas. At least electric cars have the potential to be almost fully charged by solar power in the future.
Also, I expect hydrogen-based cars to be even more expensive than electric cars.
A year ago I was thinking biofuels might be the way to go, I've since concluded that the capacity for production simply fails in any conceivable scenario to meet present levels of demand.
I do see liquid hydrocarbon fuels as attractive, though, based on energy density, flexibility, storage stability, and the very large level of installed base and technological familiarity in their use. For those reasons, the US Naval Research Lab's electricity-to-fuel synthesis relying on seawater for both hydrogen and CO, using the Fischer-Tropsch process, and producing fuel at a $3-6/gallon price estimate (I suspect that will go higher, and at present, crude oil price is about 70% of the final cost of gasoline at the pump), might allow for a continuation of fossil-fuel energy systems in a carbon-neutral and sustainable fashion.
Not cheap by a long shot, but plausible.
On top of that, the number of refueling stations is very limited--natural gas pipes are ubiquitous in cities, but they deliver the gas at a much lower pressure. You still need a roughly $2k compressor to fill the tank overnight (which uses about as much electricity as you'd put in an electric car). Commercial stations have more expensive compressors that operate continuously to fill a holding tank which cars are filled from.
It's not impossible. But the infrastructure required to put energy in the vehicle costs the same or more as for an electric car. And you use just as much electricity as an electric car (in addition to the natural gas). And the cars aren't that much cheaper than battery EVs. And the cars have similar range and refilling limitations as EVs.
Maybe we'll see it for trucks, though.
So that use case has a strong argument for CNG.
Weight doesn't really matter for a personal automobile, and you can't (easily) make the tank big enough to argue that a large tank is cheaper than a large battery. It's true, but costs unrelated to tank size are still important, and the bigger issue is that the range sucks unless you give up the entire trunk (since you can't make a CNG tank flat (like Tesla) or T-shaped (like GM).
Musk is right though, steam reforming hydrocarbons to generate hydrogen doesn't make any sense, nor does electrolysis. Using that amount of energy to generate a fuel so that you can fill up at the pump quickly is just plain nuts. We're better off using higher voltages, better batteries and super capacitors.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/09/18/new_jersey_se...
If you scroll up, you can see the definitions of terms. It's just gasoline and doesn't even apply to diesel.
So, no, it wouldn't apply to Tesla.
"How often can I Supercharge? Is it bad for my battery? Supercharging does not alter the new vehicle warranty. Customers are free to use the network as much as they like."
For example, if you don't charge and discharge the battery fully, you can get many many times more cycles out of them.
Charging quickly does release more heat, which can reduce the lifecycle of the battery, but there are workarounds to minimize this.
I am not an expert at battery chemistries, but I work with EV charging systems quite a bit.
I suspect that's why the GP was warned not to quick-charge his/her Leaf too often: The Leaf battery does not have an active cooling system.
The Leaf doesn't have any battery chillers though, so fast charging may indeed be bad for it. Also, even though most DC fast chargers only put out 50kW (as opposed to 120kW for Superchargers), if you consider how much smaller the Leaf pack is, you're actually charging the battery faster than a Supercharger can charge a Tesla.
That said, this study seems to indicate that fast charging isn't all that bad for Leafs anyway: http://insideevs.com/idaho-national-laboratory-dc-quick-char...
Sure you can. Just go to their website.