And even your article suggests that they hope to start building a full size prototype in 2014, but they don't expect to finish until 2017.
And even your article suggests that they hope to start building a full size prototype in 2014, but they don't expect to finish until 2017.
The tech is not here, but it isn't orders of magnitude away either.
They approximate that the actual energy input into the process at NIF (as opposed to "absorbed by the particles") was 422 MJ in for 14 kJ out. That's roughly 4 orders of magnitude.
Reference:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power
I know it was for a short period, but 0.5 seconds is enough to prove the concept, and this was the objective then. They did another experiment at a quarter of the output for five seconds, and both were limited by the design of the tokamak not targeting long runs (it's a scientific reactor).
All the fusion people are so far from being energy positive to overall system power input, and so far from even trying to get to that milestone, that it's a little hard to find articles that talk about the power input to the whole system. But, to use wikipedia, here's a link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_European_Torus
Note that they talk about Q. JET claims a Q of approximately 0.7. Q=1 is what you're talking about -- more energy out of the particles than is absorbed by the particles. Q=5 is potentially self-sustaining -- because, in this case, only 20% of the energy out is in a form that can create more fusion reactions. The article suggests Q=10 as the minimum for overall power output. My guess is that Q=10 is wildly optimistic for that.
If that (and/or Polywell et al) will really work out is a bit early to say. The GF people claim to have solved the basic problems, bent a lot of metal already and are getting serious investments.