In the same way, the more interactions one has, the more opportunities for fortune to strike. The result may look like "luck" from the outside, but in reality it was a confluence of both stochastic elements and fortuitous prior decision making.
In the same way, the more interactions one has, the more opportunities for fortune to strike. The result may look like "luck" from the outside, but in reality it was a confluence of both stochastic elements and fortuitous prior decision making.
I believe the lecturer (Thiel) is advocating for determinate strategies - which, practically speaking, reduce the surface area for luck since time is a finite resource. My interpretation is that he is advocating for "moon shot" approaches (examples given: Tesla, Space-X, AirBNB) where the plan/vision is laid out from the beginning.
This contrasts with the iterative "lean startup" approach whereby an initial product is launched followed by an iterative customer feedback loop. The evokes raises an interesting question: is the "lean startup" methodology an artifact of "Indeterminate Optimism"?