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Comment by biohacker42 | Hacker News Reader

Astonishing?

Soaring resource prices - he makes no mention of the currency explosion that led to inflated prices. Or that right now oil demand is back to 2005 levels. But in the long term his is obviously right because finite resources are finite. How's that an amazing prediction?

The environment as property. Is he talking about plain old private property? Or pollution regulations, or cap and trade? Those things were all on the table in 1996. And today Obama is still having a lot of trouble with even symbolic cap and trade.

The rebirth of the big city - Urbanization is not a new trend, and despite what happened to Detroit, it was never in recess, certainly not outside of America.

The devaluation of higher education - This simply has not come true at all. I hope the ivy league bubble bursts at someone point, but I think we're still decades away from that.

The celebrity economy. - Andy Warhol said it better.

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The devaluation of higher education

This is going to happen sooner rather than later. University education at this point is simply a trend - something that everyone does. You can see this not in the sciences as much as in the standard arts programs that 70% of the graduate population possess. The cost of these programs keep climbing, and the average wage does not.

Eventually, the tipping point will be reached and there will be more people in the middle class that cannot afford university without the promise of the high paying job that it gives - which it doesn't if a degree is commonplace.

Even better, European countries often fund their universities to almost 100%. When tax revenue drops off, these funds will eventually be cut. You can see this happening in Canada today.

Not many people are going to pay $70K for a four year program to become a career receptionist. Even less when it's perfectly clear that a high school educated trades apprentice can make a lot more.

University education at this point is simply a trend - something that everyone does.

I think this makes it less likely to burst. Sure a prestigious university might lose its prestige if it lets in too many commoners. But a persistent trend is more likely to make a required universal ritual.

The cost of these programs keep climbing, and the average wage does not.

The cost keeps climbing because people are willing to pay it. When the costs stop climbing that's not the same as a collapse or even a change in the general trend of needing to have a college degree.

Even better, European countries often fund their universities to almost 100%. When tax revenue drops off, these funds will eventually be cut. You can see this happening in Canada today.

Tax revenues drop in every recession, government programs are cut, rarely eliminated and I doubt universities will be the first to go anyway.

Look at California, it's probably going to cut the funding to it's public university system, but it won't eliminate it, far from it.

The bottom line is college is already in many ways more like a land cruise then a serious and challenging endeavor. And the non-academic activities which happen in college often have a greater impact on your lifetime earnings then the classes you take. Plus society loves universal rituals and traditions.

While ever rising tuition rates have to stop at some point, college education is not going away any time soon.

"How's that an amazing prediction?"

Hyperbole, but amazing in the sense that it's very different from the kinds of things "everyone" was saying in 1996. What he said are very much the things "everyone" is saying now.

So, maybe or maybe not great prediction of what will be happening 100 years from 1996. But an excellent prediction of the 2009 zeitgeist.

Fair points, but I thought his predictions on intellectual property issues changing the music industry were pretty astonishing for 1996.

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