Yet every single programming job post these days is basically looking for someone with X years of experience in a long enumeration of specific technologies. The usual reason being "They need to be productive. Now."
Any place worth working isn't looking for the absolute best candidate for X at any cost. A good fit with someone with a good work ethic who wants to learn always works out better than just raw expertise. And a reference from someone you both respect is the fastest most reliable place to find them.
That's so true. If they absolutely need the best candidate, they are about to run a very risky project.
Good management means, among others, to ensure that new people have the opportunity to learn and to "get into" the project. If management requires the "best" developers, it really means that the management is bad and the developers are supposed to make up for that.
(Having said that, there are also people who are simply a sunken cost. That is, managing them requires more resources than the value they produce. However, that's the other end of the scale, and a separate topic.)
I have found user groups meetings a great place to network though. Everyone is helpful when someone says they are looking, even if it is that persons first time at a meeting.