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Comment by timr | Hacker News Reader

This outbreak is scary because it's finally hit a major city in Africa.

All you need is for one case to hop on an international flight, and things get much harder to control.

One of the factors that keeps Ebola from causing massive epidemics and pandemics is it's rapid mortality rate. It kills people relatively fast and consistently, so outbreaks often burn themselves out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease#Epidemiolo...

If you're curious, The Coming Plague is a very interesting book that covers many hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola: http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases/dp...

Most previous outbreaks have been in rural areas, though. So depending mainly on the mortality for containment doesn't sound like the most prudent strategy.

The incubation period of Ebola virus can be quite long (more than two weeks) which is more than enough time to spread the disease geographically far. EVD/EHF is also contagious during the incubation period when no symptoms are present.

It doesn't kill people faster than a flight to a major international airport. That's all that matters.

The doctors in Minnesota are still saying that the virus that this person was infected with was “Lassa fever” a different form of Hemorrhagic fever than Ebola, but given the area of the country that the passenger traveled from, many believe that this is a case of Ebola.

The latest reports are saying that there are a number of unverified infections in the nations surrounding Guinea and Liberia. Nobody knows until the testing is done.

The big problem is that it's in a city. It's easier to control when it hits isolated villages.

Does Ebola present a threat to modern industrialized countries?

My understanding is that it is spread through contact with bodily fluids of an infected person, so in order to be safe you can basically just drink sealed bottled water and eat food that you prepared yourself (canned only, if people handling fresh food might be infected?).

HIV is also transmitted by fluids (though nowhere near as easily) but HIV has a longer incubation period which makes it more difficult for industrialized nations to deal with.

i think part of it has to do with the high fatality rate along with no specific treatment plan

Aye, it's certainly dangerous. I'm mostly wondering what likely outcome of Ebola infected passengers on a plane to NYC would be. I am inclined to think that Ebola would not spread particularly well in a city like that, and would be quickly contained/isolated.

Hard to say. Most hospitals are not prepared for (and don't expect) a disease like Ebola to walk through the door. So while we have much better standards of cleanliness and isolation than a hospital in sub-saharan Africa, we're still likely to be taken by surprise by a patient who presents with a bad fever.

The worst case is that someone gets infected and flies to a major city before they get really sick. You could have a huge network of transmission before it ever hits a hospital.

I would say the worst case is a working class African immigrant heads back home to see their ailing parents, contracts Ebola, and flies back to Paris or London while suffering from a head cold or the flu that makes them cough & sneeze. After the flight, they go back to their job as a line cook. They tough out the sinus infection, because their job requires them to. A week later, major symptoms start to develop and finally they seek a progression of primary care doctor, urgent care, hospital ER, and finally hospital isolation ward when they approach the end and the symptoms are identified for what they are. In this time they've not only hit the plane passengers, they've used packed mass transit a dozen times and infected thousands through food.

Bodily fluids can be a moderate danger or they can be a very severe danger, based largely on the circumstances of the infected.

Can you elaborate on ebola's ability to survive / transmit via something like food? How long can it continue to be contagious in that type of scenario? Would some foods be more friendly as a transport?

As someone currently in Paris: god damn it!

Yes, it's highly contagious. HIV is actually remarkably difficult to transmit (on the order of single-digit percentage seroconversion for sexual acts), but Ebola routinely transfers between patients and caregivers.

That's why doctors treating Ebola have to wear serious containment gear, but doctors treating HIV patients have to wear gloves and maybe eye protection.

Yes, it's not considered as large a risk for that exact reason - in the most severe case you simply shut down all transport and wait 15 days

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