Miracle health device crowdfunds $730k, but might be bullshit
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A red flag for me is the spontaneous development of something that would be completely groundbreaking. I mean all of the people involved are relatively unknown to the scientific community. There should be someone with some kind of credentials who tested and developed the device. A century ago, knowledge and raw materials was usually the limiting factor in discovery and a single genius scientist could make a giant leap in a field because there were a limited number of people total that had access to the knowledge and materials for furthering that area of interest. Today, nearly all of human knowledge lies at the fingertips of anyone with the internet. Everything from genetic sequencing to chemical engineering has become to prevalent and 'cheap' that almost anyone with a good idea have access to all the instruments necesary to achieve 'good science.' Now top this with the multiple Fortune 500 companies that are working to discover a means to non-invasively monitor glucose. Unexpected leaps forward in a scientific discipline, especially in medicine, should be met with great skepticism.
As the saying goes, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."
Unexpected leaps forward in a scientific discipline, especially in medicine, should be met with great skepticism.
Many advances in medicine also seem to have been suppressed by vested interests: E.g., http://www.ted.com/talks/deborah_rhodes
A much better example IMO is checklists. There cheap if somewhat demeaning and drastically reduce hospital infections among other things, but for various reasons there not in widesperad use. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Pronovost
There's a very simple way for Healbe to clear the air: release their supposed science. Publicly released scientific data has a much better chance of changing the status quo than a sketchy-looking crowdfunding campaign.
http://dst.sagepub.com/content/8/1/54.short
ETA: a 2011 review of the state of the art: http://knowledgetranslation.ca/sysrev/articles/project21/Ref...
Trying to guess how many calories are in your food and adding them up each day isn't accurate, so a device that tries to measure it automatically based on your physiology only has to be that accurate. Maybe within 30% would still be useful to people tracking their fitness.
Obviously someone who is tracking their glucose or caloric intake for medical reasons should use FDA-approved medical devices and techniques for that, but those people aren't the target audience for this device.
I have no idea if this thing is legit or not, but calling it a scam because accurate non-invasive glucose measurement is a holy grail is completely missing the point of what the device is and what it's for.
How is this any different than Occulus VR?
It doesn't. Those are your words.
Those reasons are not because occulus isn't a scam, they prove why its not a scam. If the "Healbe GoBe" had provided such validations from industry professionals, we wouldn't suspect that its a scam.
I'm obviously going to be seriously disappointed by the iWatch with expectations like that.
No, it wouldn't. It is currently extremely difficult to find money for medical devices. We have a working prototype of a non-invasive blood glucose measurement system, including several peer reviewed publications. Yet, it seems impossible to find venture capital for this. The pay off in IT und Web Start-ups is just much better.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/opinion/the-myth-of-the-me...
It may be that existing products can simply be iteratively 'improved' and that doesn't cost much on the R&D side and is far less risky. I suppose market forces would favor the corporations that are protecting their existing revenue streams, at least in the short term. I would approach your university's IP office to discuss possibly funding the product. That's how large institutions do it. If you are in the private sector, then unfortunately it's up to you to 'sell' the idea to somebody. Maybe you could find some ventures capitalists who also 'coincidentally' happen to be diabetics?
...and who is "we"? A claim like you're making might be better backed up with at least a link to your company or some of those publications.
[1] https://www.google.com/patents/US8355767?dq=non-invasive+glu...
It's "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence", but it's not quoted enough regardless. So much pseudoscience could be avoided with reasonable expectations of proof.
Also in that non-invasive glucose monitoring has had a considerable research effort behind it, it is suprising that the 'solution' would come without lots of press coverage of the science, let alone the product.
I've been talking with a Gerontologist doctor who has been actively monitoring patients with diabetes in my town. She is an incredibly up-to-date doctor. She told me that any kind of therapy or approach that doesn't bring $$$ back to the pharmaceutical companies (involving long term treatment with supplies) is immediately abandoned. Research from major players is money-driven and nothing more. She mentioned a couple of cases which I can't recall.
I have high hopes for this project and for Google's Contact Lens[1]. Let's hope it flies...
[1] http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=12300CTY4...
So... you're saying that they spend millions of dollars on clinical trials, and then they abandon these products? Because there have been plenty of trials for non-invasive glucose meters -- unfortunately, they all fail horribly at producing consistently accurate readings.
And maybe this GoBe device IS an inconsistently accurate glucose meter?
What you're saying is this device already exists, but is not good enough for diabetes. But could it be good enough for dieting?
[1] http://www.masterthyself.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Roll...
Anyways, I am thinking that these guys WILL deliver a device, but it won't be the miracle in technology everyone is expecting.
As others have said, non invasive monitoring is the holy grail and huge amounts of money are looking for a non invasive solution. But innovation here is likely to come from a start up that doesn't have the existing recurrent revenue model to be disrupted
But it's really hard. I think the chances of this particular one being a scam are pretty high
It's more like the "manager's dilemma".
Christensen suggests that successful companies can put too much emphasis on customers' current needs, and fail to adopt new technology or business models that will meet customers' unstated or future needs; he argues that such companies will eventually fall behind
I would easily part with $1000 for a watch or anklet like accessory that would measure my glucose without it being possible for me to forget about it. And I'm not even the best target market for it, because my sugar has never gone low. I had a coworker with a child with type I diabetes and they had to test her sugar somewhere around 10x a day. I'm sure a lot of parents would part with even more money than I would to avoid having to prick their child 10x a day.
Edited to add: Actually, there are likely to be sophisticated electronics anyway, enough to have a timer. The only reason I can think of not to have a subscription based model (i.e. it will work for 1 year for $250) is that it might turn off more potential customers and overall revenue could be reduced.
> Shipitsyn says that the impedance monitor in the Gobe can measure glucose by monitoring the water moving in and out of cells. Insulin opens up the cells when you eat sugar, he says.
No matter from what angle I try to make sense of that statement, I only arrive at it being bullshit.
At best, they have a standard grade sensor that, in a narrow band of perfect circumstances, makes a statistical guess that arrives at barely workable accuracy (article notes 80-90%) for a reading of something that is almoste entirely unrelated to your blood glucose level. Even if it was reasonably related, it would still not tell you anything at all about what you've eaten.
We could show you a working prototype in our lab anytime. Investors welcome. ;-)
In vivo non-invasive monitoring of glucose concentration in human epidermis by mid-infrared pulsed photoacoustic spectroscopy M.Pleitez, T.Lieblein, A.Bauer, O.Hertzberg, H.v.Lilienfeld-Toal, W.Mäntele Analytical chemistry 85 (2013), 1013-1020
I would be more than happy to send you two publications an an executive summary for potential investors. Email me at: hn.40.yooy@spamgourmet.com
The discussion here has raised some interesting points pro and contra. Much hinges on how well the research state of the art supports the company's claims. My default assumption is that people will jump to conclusions, one way or another, without doing enough homework.
Googling for key words in Healbe's brochure has turned up this academic paper which seems to confirm their method for noninvasive BGL measurement is at least a promising path:
http://www.eejournal.ktu.lt/index.php/elt/article/download/4...
A similar article reveals interesting information about an attempt at noninvasive glucose measurement ten years ago:
http://www.engr.uconn.edu/~mam10069/Docs/NonInvasiveGlucoseM...
"Report shows the device had correlation with actual glucose level by only 35.1% and in some cases it gave potentially dangerous measurements."
(Not exactly a confidence booster, but ten years is enough to improve a lot.)
Half an hour of homework has substantially decreased my trust in people who say it's flat out impossible in principle to do what HealBe claim to be doing.
ETA: further academic paper links I've posted in other comments:
http://dst.sagepub.com/content/8/1/54.short
http://knowledgetranslation.ca/sysrev/articles/project21/Ref...
Wow. If this turns out to be a scam, and IGG is doing nothing about it and saying "none of this stuff that looks terribly like a scam seems to be a scam so just go ahead and give them money", they should be liable.
Ok, if it's not a scam, I will happily eat my words. But if it is, I almost don't see the problem with the company itself but rather with how the platform is handling this.
I am very curious to see how this develops.
So if this is all a big scam you "almost don't see the problem" with the company trying to pull off the scam? The blame should lay squarely on the platform?
Are you serious?
Like, I understand that the platform should take responsibility for their vetting procedures, but to suggest they are more responsible then the company that is trying to pull the scam is fucking nuts.
I guess this is just another notch on the "fuck you got mine" belt that seems to be fairly common on HN. If you can think up a good business that doesn't have to deliver and you can get away with it or shift the blame to someone else, you get a pat on the back and are absolved of any responsibility!
On the other hand, people seem to trust IGG and Kickstarter (at least to some extent). This can be demonstrated easily by observing that content which would – on a normal website – not collect any funding seems to do well on these platforms.
So, no, it is not entirely about criminal responsibility, but about a misuse of trust, trust that IGG has and which it conferred to some company by letting them use their platform.
To me this is very much like security breaches. If security breaches didn't exist, we wouldn't need security and we then wouldn't have security. The blame should be on the insecure software, not the ones abusing it (those get a different kind of blame; legal repercussions).
What is happening here is something else altogether. It is a psychological phenomenon that some might say resembles religion, but in any case touches on a very primeval function of our psyche. Jonathan Haidt says it's the manifestation of the "purity" value among liberals[2]. Whatever this health craze is, it is far from scientific. Even people who are otherwise very careful in interpreting scientific research, change their lifestyle based on two studies on 300 people in total, that found a decrease of 40% in the incidence of a type of cancer that affects 1 person in 2000.
In fact, heated debates over findings of such dubious nature, and a far more dubious relevance to actual day-to-day living, is a common form "religious study" among the faithful, not unlike debates in Jewish Yeshivas.
Entrepreneurs – some of them believers themselves – rush to fill the demands of this As a pseudo-scientific religion's worshippers. There is nothing wrong with that. But it should be clear that they fill a very real, and very serious, psychological need, but one that has nothing to do with actual health. As such, calling a particular magic device "bullshit" is not unlike criticizing the efficacy of a particular batch of Virgin Mary icons.
[1]: To clarify: we know how it works, but not how each of a gazilion parameters – from weather to sleeping habits to genetics to diet to exercise – affects it.
[2]: http://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_on_the_moral_mind
This device purports to be able to measure glucose levels non-invasively. That is 100% verifiable, and most likely BS (to an accuracy that a diabetic would need).
Considering that diabetes is a real illness and that glucose monitoring is very important to keeping diabetics alive, this kind of thing doesn't get a pass by being "religious," like a magnetic anti-sea-sickness bracelet might.
It doesn't. The campaign page specifically disclaims that.
I don't know anything about this particular device, but as Ed Catmull says, if you try to eliminate errors you decrease an creative output.
People would equally skeptical of the kids down the block claiming to have cracked cold fusion.
If it's relatively anonymous, it has to stand on its own with whatever proof provided; I'd accept a claim from my neighbor-of-N-years that "your house is on fire" a lot more than I'd accept the same claim in email from Nigeria, but if someone had a live photo/video feed of my house on fire, I'd believe even an anonymous source to a reasonable degree (modulo photoshopping, etc.)
http://healbe.com/files/Healbe_HistoryTechnology_04031-C.pdf
From what I can tell, it all comes down to whether its claim to use impedance at different frequencies to measure blood glucose levels. There's no indication that this is possible. There's a lot of talk about secret algorithms, but algorithms are only as good as the data they can be fed.
http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2013/01/bad-physics-ba...
In other words, can I make and sell a space-alien repellant on IGG? If people bought it and are happy with their purchase, well, you can't prove that it isn't repelling space aliens, and IGG gets their cut too.
Currently the more attractive a fraud brought to them is the more they stand to make from it so there is a strong conflict of interest between them and their users.
Someone needs to create a site that is a crowd funding wall of shame listing and reviewing projects that show the extent and profitability of fraud. There is KickScammer but it isn't very visible or complete at this point.
I understand that its my own fault for not waiting, but if Indiegogo doesn't do anything about this, I think their reputation could get quite badly damaged ...
I've participated in a number of kick starters, they all have delays and overhype. That's ok with me. I love bleeding edge tech.
The pattern on display here is a classic - make bold (but impossible) claims, attract a crowd of the faithful who want to believe, backpedal and prevaricate when called to back up your claims, collect as much hype and as much cash as possible and then never deliver.
It's the same pattern as was seen with perpetual motion machines several times last decade.
HHere's a question - what would make you change your mind?
Meanwhile, who outside of Reddit, HN and LWN knows about Blender's campaign?
Secondly perhaps more importantly the choice to self host the campaign was very foolish, and probably fatal mistake. I don't know if this was because Kickstarter is not open source, or they didn't want to give Kickstarter 5%. The value of Kickstarter is it's network effect, (not the code to host a video, and manage credit card transactions). If they used Kickstarter they would be exposed to way more potential backers every day, as people backing other film projects look around for other similar projects. If they were on Kickstarter they would be the most funded Film and Video project with the money they have raised on their own and the in the top 10 of currently funding projects.
I also don't sense any specifically anti-Russian sentiment. I think the references to Russia are to contrast the lack of presence in SF despite a claim to have one, or the lack of corroboration for the claimed references. I imagine the tone of the article would be the same if it was France or South Africa or Malaysia.
It still has most of the impact of saying 'It's bullshit', but it is a lot safer from a legal standpoint.
edit: I think most of us will read a little of this and the other articles in the series, and then delete the 'might'