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How well did third parties do after Nader in 2000, or Perot in the 90's? This seems like a glaring counter-example to your argument, don't you think?

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Nader did well following Perot. Eventually one of these might make it and if they also act to weaken the two-party system, the floodgates could open like they have in other countries. But none of that can happen if people who don't like the two-party system keep voting for it anyway just because of petty bipartisan tribalism.

No. Perot did around 15% in his first run (with 10s of millions of his own money), followed up by 5%. Nader did in the low single digits. There is no momentum to be had. They do exactly as well as their money will allow. Third party candidates have no shot.

Look up first-past-the-post voting. It is impossible for a viable third party to do well in such a voting system.

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