If you have 3000 people predicting the outcomes of events with say a probablity of 0.3 after 6 trials there would be 2 people who got all of them correct and many others who would have a very good record out of pure chance alone.

Unless they publish the detailed numbers we can't be sure of whats going on here.

If some person with access only to normal sources is able to perform so well against people with access to lots of classified sources and information , what are we to conclude ?

Either they are just lucky or the people at the CIA aren't as competent as we think they are.

If we are unwilling to accept any of these theories then we need to know what makes these people good at it. I don't see how just plain simple analysis can beat people at the CIA.