What Games Are: Virtual Reality, We Hardly Knew You
techcrunch.com
techcrunch.com
I'm as skeptical as any about the Oculus acquisition, but having experienced the Valve VR room demo (now owned by Oculus), I think we're a lot closer to the Matrix than anyone would have thought after looking at DK1. My first thoughts after taking the demo rig off was "wow, I'm going to have to reconsider what the next 10 years looks like for humanity."
Believe it or not, but Simulated Reality is as close to us, as Proxima Centauri is close to the Sun. Its just about ~4.6 light years away!
We have MUCH research to commit to for us to get close to SR in an academic way, forget about commercial ways in even far away future....
The demo is not consumer-product-ready, as it is currently expensive and the tracking requires you to paper your room. But those things are all solvable (inevitably with a bit of time, which is why Mike said 'within two years').
A number of the key people responsible for the Valve work are now at Oculus with a mandate to consumerize the best tech possible. So yeah, it is going to happen. Do not believe this article. Oculus CV1 may not get all the way there but it will be better than is necessary to show clearly the writing on the wall (the main factor in its quality being cost, which the Facebook deal helped tremendously with). CV2 will, I expect, be pretty badass.
(I have tried the Valve demo and then spent a few days working with my game on their hardware.)
Response: What is an Xbox, if not a proprietary gaming PC? Sony is working on VR for the PS4. Meanwhile, Valve is trying to bring linux gaming PC's to the living room. This stuff is not going to be limited to work computers. Eventually, with a wireless connection or a sufficiently powerful mobile computer (i.e. Your phone in a few years), VR will be available wherever you feel like putting on a headset.
Argument: VR is only going to attract the hardcore gamers, and they don't trust Facebook, so nobody's going to buy.
Response: Oculus is just one of several big firms currently making major pushes into VR-land. Sony is another and you can bet MS won't be far behind.
Argument: Presence doesn't work if not everything is perfect, so VR is doomed.
Response: What do you have when you play a game through a monitor? Imperfect presence. You interact with a virtual world through a window. You frequently walk around in that world as a humanoid avatar speaking to other humanoids and you completely forget you're looking through a window into their world. Imperfect presence works. It even worked back when you could see pixels the size of your avatar's head. VR simply puts your head through the window and lets you look around. Why didn't it take off sooner then? Up until now, 2D windows had clearly superior lag properties and limited resolution meant things looked better on smaller displays. It's also pretty wasteful to blow pixels on peripheral vision, so we didn't bother when pixels were expensive. VR headsets don't have to be perfect to take off. They just have to be as good as 2D displays in the ways that matter.
P.S. Bluray cannot be considered dead until a viable alternative arises that addresses its market: Audio/Video-philes. This is a niche market, but a stable one.
I don't think Bluray was developed for this market. It was developed to conquer the DVD, but now this niche market is all it has left.
Argument: VR will be a niche market because most styles of gaming have diminishing returns on increased immersion. After all, even with continuous rises in graphics quality in the hardest of the hardcore market, the mass market seems to have refocused its preference-attention on game design around the time mass mobile gaming became a thing and game consoles started costing $400.
The mobile market is still comparatively tiny in terms of gross, but it must be pointed out that it is not incompatible with VR. Current handsets are not powerful enough to support VR but that will change in a few years. The question is, how much immersion do mobile users really want?
But I agree that it's not going to go mainstream, not in the way that smartphones have. VR is probably going to get popular with console and PC gamers, but I think many others simply will not care about presence. I say this as someone who has played with the Dev kits. They are fun, and magical experiences the first few times. But ultimately they get put away for more convenient entertainment that is just as engaging.
Edit: which is why the Facebook thing is so weird. I don't think anyone actually wants a metaverse. I think people want fun and interesting unique-to-VR game and simulation experiences.
Either you think it works or doesn't, whether or not Facebook bought a company doesn't speak to the technology or possible market.