Can HEVC/h.265 save Netflix from future ISP shakedowns?

Answer: Maybe in 6 years, and even then not so much. The author here plays very fast and loose with the figures. The claim about h.265 encoded 720p video vs. h.264 encoded video is particularly egregious. From the article:

"For example, a 720p movie transmitting in HEVC will only require 600 Kbps to crisply stream, a connection speed drastically lower than the current average of 4.5 Mbps."

Utter nonsense. The statement is phrased so it appears that they are comparing the same video quality, when in reality, the best h.265 encoders will probably only reduce 720p file size (for a given quality) by around 30% vs. x264 encoded h.264.

I do at least applaud the author for mentioning that hardware decoder support is a ways off, but the citations he offers for actual decoder support are very light on details. I seriously doubt we'll see hardware h.265 decoding support in even half of newly marketed devices 2 years from now. Nevermind the heavily entrenched existing install base that Netflix will still be servicing. Software decoding h.265 will make a top of the line CPU scream right now.

And then there's the problem that encoding h.265 takes about 40 times as long as h.264 which is hardly negligible but he just cursorily tosses off. His conclusion is what really annoys me though:

"Despite these challenges, major ISPs working together with Netflix to adapt its massive library into a data-friendly format is a better long-term solution for every party involved."

Just how exactly will the US ISPs be involved here? Are they going to rent out a few thousand EC2 instances and re-encode all of that content? No. Are they going to donate substantial sums of money to x265 or any other effort to develop encoders? No. Are they going to provide R&D funds to Qualcomm, Intel, Nvidia, etc. to hasten the development of hardware decoders? Of course they won't. They will do what they have always done: They will leverage the network duopoly they've been handed by the US Government. They will never make good on their commitment to build out a 45mbps/45mbps symmetrical network connection to every end user that US tax payers paid for, and they will rely on actual innovators to compensate for their lazy, unethical and greedy business model. The truth is that HEVC is not primarily intended to make 720p content cheaper to move about, it's intended to make 4K and 8K content streaming possible given the wretched recalcitrance of US network providers.