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The Turkish military sees itself as the guardian of the Kemalist constitution and is unhappy with Erdogan.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Turkish_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

Rising conflicts between popular groups would, if they seriously undermined Erdogan's claim to be in command of the country, provide a pretext for a coup.

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This understanding is outdated. AKP has gutted the old secular military establishment and instituted reforms that no longer make this a realistic scenario.

"Gutted" seems strong to me: the military has lost its influence over the judiciary, but they are a very strong, well-funded and influential arm of the state, and they seem to be gaining some measure of public respect that they lost. I could be wrong, but I think the ethos of being guardians of the constitution is still there. (And, for its own reasons, the AKP has been stressing the possibility of a coup as a reason for weakening the army).

How realistic a scenario a coup is depends on just how messy the months ahead get, I think.

Nope, the military isn't as strong in Turkey as it used to be. Jailing a bunch of top generals will do that.

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