Earth dodged a massive magnetic eruption from Sun that could have wreaked havoc | Hacker News Reader

Earth dodged a massive magnetic eruption from Sun that could have wreaked havoc

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

40 pointslinux_devil35 comments

Somewhat less melodramatic space.com article about it: http://www.space.com/17103-sun-eruption-fastest-solar-plasma...

One Second After is a novel describing the possible outcome of such an event [1]. It's a pretty good read.

Months before publication, One Second After has already been cited on the floor of Congress as a book all Americans should read, a book already being discussed in the corridors of the Pentagon as a truly realistic look at a weapon and its awesome power to destroy the entire United States, literally within one second. It is a weapon that the Wall Street Journal warns could shatter America. In the tradition of On the Beach, Fail Safe and Testament, this book, set in a typical American town, is a dire warning of what might be our future...and our end.

[1] http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4922079-one-second-after (note that the synopsis given is wrong, I think. I recall that the event in the book was from a war, but simply unexplained because the normal folks had no way of knowing what the source of the EMP was.)

I got few questions:

Do we have any kind of recovery plan from this? As I understand almost all electronics would be deep fried, including machinery used in factories that make electronics we need to replace.

Would impact be localized to part of the planet facing sun?

What kind of shielding would be required on most sensitive infrastructure to protect it?

How deep data center would need to be to avoid data on hard drives being wiped?

I would say you are a victim of the overly dramatic article, designed to attract clicks.

The risk is not primarily to electronics, but to the power distribution system. CMEs induce large, very low frequency currents in transmission lines, which can destroy the large transformers connected to them. There is no large reservoir of replacement transformers, and they take some time to build, so in the event of a widespread event, they will not be quickly replaced. IEEE Spectrum had a detailed discussion of the problem and steps to mitigate it: http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/a-perfect-s...

While hardening important infrastructure is a worthy goal, I'd say it makes just as much sense to cause people to be less dependent on said infrastructure in various ways.

Of course, where the former is more of an engineering problem, I'd say the other is far more difficult.

The latter also has a lot more negative side effects and is probably more expensive.

1. It depends on who "we" are. For almost everybody, it would be a non-event but for the hype in the media. Electronics would not be deep fried. Some damage would occur to satellites, but few would be permanently affected.

2. "Impact" would be from the sun. The magnetic effect can wrap around the earth to some extent.

3. Most "infrastructure" would require no shielding. The atmosphere does a good job, except for certain circumstances.

4. No hard drives would come close to being wiped by the CME, even it was directed at earth.

This CME was rated about 80 nanoTesla. The "Carrington Event" of 1859 was about 50 percent stronger. This CME is notable primarily because of its speed, not its size or destructive potential (except when used for selling newspapers).

A non-event, but for the minor annoyance of:

Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures, with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in about 12-24 hours; and immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply, and so on. Kappenman stated that the effects on these interdependent infrastructures could persist for multiple years, with a potential for significant societal impacts and with economic costs that could be measurable in the several-trillion-dollars-per-year range. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12507&page=77

> good fortune prevailed on the blue planet which was placed on the other side of the sun at the time.

> Had the eruption come nine days earlier, it would have hit Earth

Wait, the year is 18 days long now?

The sun rotates! Every 25 days. http://www.windows2universe.org/sun/Solar_interior/Sun_layer...

Oh, I see, that makes a lot more sense. Thanks!

"… could have wrought …"

Hypothetically, what could be done to reduce the impact?

Well, hypothetically: unplug everything on that side of the planet right before it hits, especially the main power lines.

I like how damn near every article can have a related XKCD comic ...

https://xkcd.com/509/

A common misconception. Ha, try finding that one...

Even simpler - you add grounding to the transformers. Basically a large surge protector.

The CME induces large currents in long wires, so you ground those and dissipate the energy. It's not even very expensive.

Studies have shown that the most effective measure is to switch everything on, dropping the termination impedance, whilst taking production partly offline.

I have a couple of links at the office, currently at home.

What is the projection angle or area of one of these storms? I'd guess that the vast majority miss Earth.

This reminds me of a conversation I had with a friend once. I said, "I avoid accidents while driving all the time." He replied, "you avoid an infinite number of accidents!" I guess similarly, the earth avoids an infinite number of interstellar events?

I wonder how many would die because freezers and microwaves stopped functioning.

It's not just that; transportation and production would be affected as well.

The trucks that move food and the tractors that plant it would stop working just the same as the freezers and microwaves. In addition, payment networks would be dead so you'd be left with the cash in your pocket and no way to get more. Not hard to see how quickly society would start to collapse at that point.

You have low standards for society if you it would crumble that quickly.

Granted there would be some chaos, but I really don't think people would so rapidly 'devolve'.

I propose that GP is closer to the truth than you may believe. All of the modern logistical systems in place (in the US) are based on embedded controls. Train switching is hugely important for freight, and there hasn't been an 18-wheeler manufactured in the last 15 years (at least) without electronic engine and braking controls. Those together are the lifeblood of American logistics. If these control systems are simultaneously borked and not repaired/replaced, grocery stores would show empty shelf sections within weeks and would have to adjust their business models quickly to stay open.

Industrial food machinery would be likely disabled by anything strong enough to affect logistical systems. No more pasteurized milk from automated systems, there goes >80% of supply. Anything not driven by a belt or shaft would be taken out. That means that the farming machines in use today which allow a farmer to produce orders of magnitude more food than a century ago "may" work, depending on how they're controlled. Most modern systems have electronic controls of ancillary systems, but many farmers can get around that sort of thing in a pinch.

Also, anyone on life support would die. Anyone requiring dialysis would likely die. Hospitals would have power from generators, but their power distribution and control systems would be fried. Doctors are able to use modern knowledge but have to look everything up in books. Digital patient records are inaccessible. Medicine supplies are restricted to what is on hand, which likely amounts to less than a month's stock. This is due to logistics, but also to the control systems in place at pharma manufacturing plants being fried.

This is just food and medicine. All programmers who can't hardware hack become farmers and traffic control officers until power comes back, which could take time considering the machinery to make modern transformers has digital controls.

This assumes that factories have inadequate EMF shielding, which is the premise of the situation.

Does this assumption also include the other half of the World ignoring the affected? You raise some excellent points, but I think for chaos levels to reach society-crumbling status, it'd need to stop the whole World.

Then absolutely, it would be devastating and the resulting power-struggle when trying to maintain order within so many ranks of authority throughout various Governments would end in disaster.

However, if the other half of the World is relatively unscathed, I don't think they would let the other half just fall into oblivion.

New Orleans, post-Katrina. Cash would have less necessity, but if you have a gallon of gasoline, or water, or a can of soup ... you can barter for whatever you need.

... or if you have lead.

I wasn't there, but from the pictures it looked like televisions and beer were the commodities in highest demand (followed closely by lead).

> microwaves

wat.

There exist people who basically cannot cook without a microwave.

You would think that after 5.5 billion years of playing, the Sun would know that it needs to lead its targets when shooting.

Sssssshhhhhh! Don't be giving it any hints now!

Apparently it's a bit of a hothead.

You don't need to be accurate shooting a fish in a barrel, you just need to be patient.

A heuristic to mitigate this problem: decentralization. Decentralize power production. Decentralize food production. Decentralize communication networks. Decentralize manufacturing.

Decentralize also creates robust systems which will make it easier to recover from such an event.

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