Cops find five Indian Ocean practice runways in MH370 pilot’s simulator
themalaymailonline.com
themalaymailonline.com
"Cops find five Indian Ocean practice Runways..." seems to suggest these runways were used for practice by Shah. This article says nothing more than these were runway options (out of probably thousands) that were available for simulation. There is no useful information from this piece at all, and it is leading to completely unwarranted speculation, especially by folks who have no knowledge of flying and simulators.
I'd almost expect something like this from a pilot that takes his trade seriously. After all, where do you have to land in case of emergency, if not on some runway near your regular routes.
What's Malay for "Keystone Kops".
I'm not a pilot, but I imagine if I were, I would want to try landing at airports I normally wouldn't. So in the simulator I would probably pick the world's toughest runways, the most scenic ones, runways on the other side of the world...
The Malaysians are being criticized but I don't think many countries would do that much better given the task in hand. Sure, the public relations and messaging should be better, but I'm sure there's a lot of stuff going on that we don't know about.
They had the military radar data the night the plane went missing, indicating that the plane did not in fact crash near where the transponder shut down, but flew west for over an hour before disappearing off the radar in that direction.
Despite having this information available, they either ignored it or didn't think to ask for it or something, and as a result they wasted massive amounts of time and effort (theirs and that of other countries) searching the wrong ocean. For a week.
That military radar data is probably the most important information in the investigation that wasn't immediately known. Yet it didn't actually come to light until days later, and then when it did their immediate reaction was to deny that it was true! It took another couple of days before they finally settled down and admitted, yes, we tracked this plane flying completely out of the search area and far away from where we've been telling everyone it is. And we knew this for a couple of days, but we let everybody continue searching the wrong place anyway. In fact, we'll still let them keep searching for a couple more days before we refocus.
There is some serious WTF going on. I hope there is some massive coverup or conspiracy going on, because they're verging on criminally incompetent otherwise.
1. How did the military not know this plane disappeared from civilian tracking systems?
2. If they did know, why did they not scramble planes to check what's going on?
3. Why did they withhold for days the fact that the plane changed direction?
The GP is right: some serious WTF going on in Malaysia.
But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on.
I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea.
Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored.
I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?).
For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones.
As an example, listen to the incoherency of this professional pilot suffering effects of hypoxia at 32,000 feet (flying a LearJet 25) -- he sounds falling over drunk, complaining about flight control problems, oblivious to the profound effects of hypoxia that he and his copilot are experiencing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg
Then listen to him after being coached to descend to 11,000 feet when everything really is "A-OK".
He sounds like a completely different person at 4:10.
The co-pilot who sounds young and spritely at 4:00 (who me? unconscious, nah, just a micro-nap) had this written about him: "the unconscious first officer's arm was moving violently and uncontrolled all the time kicking the controls and thus disengaging the autopilot"). [1]
While I find all the wild speculation fascinating, sadly I believe the highest probability explanation is still a fire or depressurization, resulting in a pilot acting incoherently.
Of course, all stones should still be turned over in the search, but there's been no evidence so far that changes the scenario above from being the highest probability in my assessment.
Particularly when you consider it was responsible (at least partially) for the downing of Helios flight 522 in 2005.
I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.
> According to the Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Transport, Pham Quy Tieu, "We informed Malaysia on the day we lost contact with the flight that we noticed the flight turned back west but Malaysia did not respond."
Malaysia had all the info they needed to know that the plane had not crashed into the Gulf of Thailand almost immediately. Ideally they would have acted on it right away. Realistically, I can understand a day or two of delay as they look into the obvious things first and try to confirm the other data. But to wait so long and ignore so much is well beyond what ought to have happened.
Edit: especially in the 9/11-paranoid US and other similarly fearful countries, the plane would have been noticed on military radar in real time and would have been intercepted right away, and this whole question of who knew what when and how long it's reasonable to search in the wrong place would have been avoided because the fighter pilots would have watched the thing sail off with their own eyes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2583553/Thai-militar...
"Has there been a military cover-up over missing jet? Thai air force says its radar spotted MH370 heading to Strait of Malacca minutes after it vanished (but didn't say anything)... MH370 spotted at 1.28am, eight minutes after it stopped communicating. Turned towards Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca... Thai air force did not report contact because 'it did not look like a threat'"
If I am not mistaken, the 9/11 commission report revealed that civilian and military radar systems and processes were not linked, thereby resulting in confusion as to what was happening. Although lessons should have been learnt, I suspect this problem still exists in many countries, and this is what we are witnessing right now.
Edit: added "professional"
Once they're home they crash-out and relax. Make a meal, have a shower. Check Facebook.
Their day job is pretty boring* and they're not particuarly interested in replicating it on a computer.
* where did you fly today? Oh, a runway in Portugal and another one in Malta.
http://www.amazon.com/Scalpel-Blades-10-Box-100/dp/B0008FUQ2... It's not like it's at all expensive either.
News out today claims multiple eye-witnesses in the Maldives:
"Residents of the remote Maldives island of Kuda Huvadhoo in Dhaal Atoll have reported seeing a "low flying jumbo jet" on the morning of the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
They said that it was a white aircraft, with red stripes across it – which is what the Malaysia Airlines flights typically look like.
...
"I've never seen a jet flying so low over our island before. We've seen seaplanes, but I'm sure that this was not one of those. I could even make out the doors on the plane clearly," said an eyewitness.
"It's not just me either, several other residents have reported seeing the exact same thing. Some people got out of their houses to see what was causing the tremendous noise too."
"Satellite data suggests that the last “ping” was recieved from the flight somwhere close to the Maldives and the US naval base on Diego Garcia."
Where is this coming from? Nowhere have I seen anything to suggest there was a "ping" anywhere specific. We've only heard about ping data along non-specific arcs well away from the Maldives.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/1070...
http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/16/satcom-acars-explained/
Note the comments in the above link, the authorities have only released the INMARSAT ARC corresponding to a single ping. They have not released the ARCs for all the pings which would indicate if the plane was flying West or not.
It may be that authorities are already investigating the Maldives and possible follow-on destinations, but do not want to publicly alert the pilot/hijackers that they are on their trail, so in public the focus has been on the northern corridor and Kazakhstan.
Imagine a plane goes missing in Hawaii and hours later you see an unusual plane over San Francisco. The news is talking about how the plane disappeared over Hawaii and crashed into the ocean around there and lots of planes and ships are combing the waters around Hawaii... are you really going to connect your unusual sighting with those events happening half an ocean away?
So how about we find it first (stuck in some jungle as its guaranteed to be) and then let facts guide our wild speculations?
The Maldives are pretty darn scenic, the landing strip is a tiny island and a 777-rated pilot wouldn't have been flying there with MAS; some of his friends might have been. And even landing somewhere as run-of-the mill as Changi can be made less dull by doing it on the military runway in a storm - it's a lot easier on a sim when you don't have to explain your actions to ATC
And there are enough plane spotters amongst the aviation enthusiast community to suggest that the real aviation industry equivalent of reimplementing of "Hello World" has its fanbase :-)
Nowadays, most sim enthusiasts are semi-pro pilots and aerospace engineers. The biggest draw of sims is being able to fly aircraft that you normally couldn't, like the A-10 which is masterfully simulated down to its tiniest details by DCS in DCS Warthog.
Altneratively: it went to Diego Garcia, and the US military is in on it. No civilians or public air services required. It refueled and launched again from there.
Don't necessarily believe these are likely, it's just interesting to think about.