Hacker News Reader

Comment by Bahamut | Hacker News Reader

Of course, but if you read what the site is doing, it is treating it as if it is in randomly picking a unique bracket.

No, I think it clearly states a smart statistical analysis will be used when generating brackets. Even references some Duke professor.

I don't know what statistical method they plan on using, but Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight already put out percentages for the whole bracket based on statistics/matchups[1]. It wouldn't be too hard to hand out brackets generated using the highest percentage brackets from something like that.

I still don't think it will work. Even if a million people took part it would still be like a 1:1000 shot at best. And assuming they did distribute it evenly (don't think this is really possible given taxes and everything) at a million people that's only $1000 per person.

[1]http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predic...

I'm not typically a gambling man, but 1:1000 for $1000 is pretty good odds if you ask me, particularly considering there is no buy in (I think).

Well you're giving your details to Quicken Loans and presumably yahoo. That includes name, address, DOB. While those details don't have a monetary value to you, they certainly have value to the companies you're giving them to.

It's not random. It's using a model to create what it believes the most likely bracket outcomes are. Those unique brackets are then distributed, obviously in order of most likely to least likely.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com