"Google's core competency - search -- has barriers to entry the size of LEGO walls. If two guys starting from their dorm room were able to topple one-time reigning search king Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), what makes you think that Google itself is any more secure?"
What, indeed? Well, for starters, Larry and Sergei are probably aware that, if it's 1998 all over again, the next Larry and Sergei are going to eat their lunch. This is sort of how France was aware in 1939 that, if it was 1914 again, the Germans would go straight for Paris.
"Look no further than the whopping price Google was forced to offer up for DoubleClick as proof of what can happen when you pit a couple of ludicrously cash-rich companies against each other."
I would suggest looking a lot further, actually. Most of Google's acquisitions go unreported (at least that's the impression I get from people in a position to know). Obviously, the most overpriced deal will get the most attention -- but that's practically a tautology. Google is probably able to buy smaller startups for less because they pay half the cost in dollars, and half the cost in I'm-working-for-Google cred.
"That said, binding the company's fortunes so tightly to an approach that has left heaps of corpses in the corporate graveyard is more than a touch frightening."
Which corpses does he have in mind? If he's thinking of dot.coms from the late 90's, he's thinking of the early version of a business Google got right, which seems as relevant as noting that Henry Ford was doomed because look at what happened to to that horse-drawn carriage company down the street. I don't know what else he could have in mind -- television, radio, product placement, and outdoor advertising aren't doing noticeably poorly (and if their returns do start to drop, the first thing to check is whether or not it's Google's fault).
"Google forecast: Underperformance, with a slight chance of greatness Again, I love Google, and I have huge respect for the company's accomplishments. The company could innovate itself to outstanding returns for many more years to come. But given the... fat valuation on the shares, I certainly wouldn't bet on it."
That's it. That's the case against Google. Good, but not 52X earnings on $4 billion in annualized earnings great.