Android is the new Symbian/J2ME. 7 years ago Symbian looked unstoppable, but look at it now. The same will eventually happen to Android, especially if Google continues down its current path of forced integration with Google+.

Google has a Samsung problem. I think they are in a bad position, such as Sun was with Java or IBM with the PC. They own the platform, but they aren't getting much from it that I can tell. I'm no psychic. But I can easily see Google dropping Android in a few years or Samsung forking it. Won't be good for developers or users.

One thing that's interesting in this context is the Firefox phone and its 100% FOSS web tech stack. I've seen projections of an additional 400 million smart phone users this year and maybe another 600 million in 2015. It seems plausible that Firefox phones will reach 10% of new smartphones by the end of 2015; if that happens I think it's highly likely that the game will change again.