After Big Bet, Hedge Fund Pulls the Levers of Power
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Of course trying to ruin a company by bribing government officials to begin a witch hunt investigation is wrong if you stand to profit billions of dollars from that witch hunt.
Given the enormous profit he'll realize if he's successful in discrediting Herbalife, I can easily discount all of his other arguments as BS. He has no credibility in the matter if billions are at stake.
Note that I'm not defending Herbalife. Maybe they are scammy company that should be investigated and regulated more by the government - by that investigation shouldn't happen because a billionaire starts buying politicians, lobbyists and "non-profit" lapdog organizations.
US government already has established channel for complaining about unethical companies: Better Business Bureau. They don't need manufactured complaints.
The BBB is a private organization with nothing to do with the government. Some would say the BBB is a protection racket.
Political influence is both more subtle and more shocking than the popular caricature of "bribing a Congressman." American politics is far more sophisticated than that. Here, you don't just write a check to get the decision you want, at least not typically. You do things like convince an entire state that an industry that damages their health and their land is actually a crucial part of their culture, history, and heritage, and that anyone who wants to reign it in are an existential threat to their community. That's the kind of influence that a nosey prosecutor will never be able to pin on anyone.
It is as though we should immediately side with a company on the sole basis that it purports to help minorities.
Folks, not every company that purports to work with minorities is good.
Many of these supplement companies are, in fact, peddling snake oil[1]. Who their distributors are should not be a deciding factor. I think back to the old command[2], "Do not deny anyone justice in his lawsuit simply because he is poor, nor favor a person's lawsuit because he is poor."
[1]: http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?cat=7 [2]: http://bit.ly/1oFfDq1
So sure astroturf campaigns try and borrow the positive glow of grassroots, but since the glow is undeserved to begin with that's a pretty minor peccadillo.
That said, I think the article raises a legitimate concern. The ends do not justify the means. Astroturfing, dubious involvement of community leaders and government officials, large checks, letters from 'average citizens" who don't recall writing: all bullshit.
I agree that we should hate the game. But the reason we should hate it is that when people play it, they weaken the foundations of our society. If we only hate that when the wrong people do it, then we're part of the problem.
Every single one of the organizations which helped in the lobbying effort all have an incentive to preserve the problem to which they themselves are the solution (credit: Clay Shirky). Lobbyists and every organization described in this story are all trying to preserve all the problems with our current system. Without those problems, they'd all be out of a job tomorrow.
The fact that there is tons of money made playing this game gives all the big players incentive to hire the services of every institution and individual that makes a living off this game.
I'm all for Ackman doing something noble, but the profit motive is only serving to strengthen all the institutions that we should be trying to dismantle in favor of a more informed populace with better means to participate directly.
If I had to choose better the existence of a scummy enterprise like Herbalife and a totally screwed up lobbying system, I would definitely choose keeping around Herbalife as the lesser of two evils.
If only Ackman had some way to hold a short position on the power institutions running Washington D.C.
Besides, if you can profit from destroying a company for noble reasons, what's to stop hedge funds from destroying innocent companies in a similar way? Although maybe that already happens a lot.
Given that our government is a pay-to-play enterprise, I'm glad that somebody is paying to go after Herbalife. If people are going to destroy something for profit, I'd rather it were an exploitative company like Herbalife. Rather than, say, a perfectly good mattress manufacturer: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/business/economy/05simmons...
Here's the counter argument from a noted short seller:
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2013/07/it-was-night-befor...
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2013/01/notes-on-visiting-...
"Bill Ackman a Harvard educated (magna cum laude) billionaire New York hedge fund manager bet over a billion dollars on a short position (imperilling his fund and his reputation) without checking the facts. And he did not check the facts because he was so rigid with a misplaced silver spoon that he could not stoop to sit on a subway for thirty minutes and talk with poor people for ninety minutes."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/09/us-herbalife-idUSB...
Money where his mouth is.
His history with MBIA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBIA
"Ackman [...] called for a division between MBIA's bond insurers' structured finance business and their municipal bond insurance side, despite statements from the insurance companies that this would not be a viable option.
"He argued that the billions of dollars of CDS protection MBIA had sold against various mortgage backed CDOs was going to be a problem. He also argued that it was not proper for MBIA, which was legally restricted from trading in CDS, to instead do it through a second corporation, LaCrosse Financial Products, which MBIA described as an 'orphaned subsidiary.' Ackman bought credit default swaps against MBIA corporate debt as a way to bet that it would crash. When MBIA did, in fact, crash as the financial crisis of 2008 came to a head, he sold the swaps for a large profit. Ackman reportedly attempted to warn regulators, rating agencies and investors about the bond insurers' high risk business models."
That's one way to put it, yes.
Reading stuff like this really gets me sick to my stomach.
If someone wanted to actually put this into practice, the thing to do would be to create a fund and identify several companies doing illegal things, short the stocks, and then launch campaigns against them.
I'm not sure if the math works out though. With traditional VC your wins are orders of magnitude larger than your losses, which is what allows the portfolio to succeed. I don't know enough about shorts to know whether a similar structure could be created.
It's bad because after he bought short position, he's using his money and influence to crash Herbalife, by any means necessary, buying fake concern from various "community" groups, trying to influence government officials to start investigation etc.
Metaphorically speaking, he's a corporate terrorist, trying to cause distress in a company in order to profit from it.
And let's be clear: he doesn't care what happens after (potentially temporary) drop in Heralife's stock price.
He's end-game is not fixing Herbalife via some government action, all he needs to make his billions is temporary drop in stock price caused by FUD that an investigation would create.
Do you hold the plaintiff's bar to the same standard?
>Do it without making a profit and I might listen or even agree with you.
lol? Instead of being concerned about the possibility that Herbalife is a scam that preys on those on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum, your primary point of contention is that someone stands to make money off exposing it.
I also like the completely off-the-mark "robber barons" reference, despite the fact that neither of the two parties (Ackman, Herbalife) fit the description. The week has just started and you're already venting online!
Isn't it basic market economics, though? If you don't make crusading against the bad guys profitable, people won't do it.
1. Ackman shorted Herbalmagic.
2. Ackman lobbied against herbalmagic.
3. Lobbying failed, and Ackman has now accumulated 500 millions in paper loss.
4. Ackman announces that he will give any profit to charity.
Pretty easy to give away non-existing profit. (Also, his donation would obviously not include any profit his firm and clients would make off the bet.)
> Mr. Ackman has said he will donate any profits he personally earns to charity, calling it “blood money.”
And that's ignoring the fact that we live in a capitalist society. You need money to get things done. If no one stood to make a profit from this the effort wouldn't be nearly as well run. This is the market working at its best (at least in principle), rewarding people who put in lots of effort to reveal information that benefits the public.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding capitalism but if you "do it for the money" it's actually quite likely that you care a lot more about what is happening.
And as others have stated he will give away the profits (he'll still care quite a lot because the losses will hurt). He'll still come out a winner because this is excellent PR for his investment firm if he wins the bet somewhat similar to the lost Rockefeller bid.
I actually think the idea of shorting a company as motivation to get things done is quite fascinating. It hadn't really occurred to me as an instrument for public change before reading up on this.
[the methods employed seem somewhat questionable but I'm sure the other side employs similar methods...but then again I'd be interested to see some cold war scenarios play out publicly where two investment companies battle over sink/raise of some other companies stock price by employing the dirtiest tactics possible...mostly to make sure those tactics get removed as options. For example I think it would be hilarious if some other investment firm went long on HL and lobbying with more lobbying thus returning to the status quo of HL lobbying. Yeah sometimes I'm sick and twisted like that]
What I would like to add though is that Bill Ackman is extremely thorough before going all out on a bet of such proportions. If he wasn't he wouldn't be in the business any longer than average Joe. Bill Ackman has acknowledged losing $400 million to $500 million on his short position, and I really don't think he is stupid enough to want to lose more money just to stroke his ego.
Here is one thing that the author states in the article:
Mr. Ackman once made a similar bet against the bond insurer MBIA, one that reaped him and his investors a $1.1 billion return. In a book about his MBIA wager called “Confidence Game,” the reporter-turned-financial analyst Christine S. Richard chronicled how he fought with regulators for SEVEN YEARS before his prediction that MBIA stock would “spiral downward” came true.
What this fails to take into state is that if the regulators had been more diligent in following up, they could have helped reign in the massive toxic CDO empire that companies like MBIA enabled that nearly tanked the global economy a couple of years ago. Also MBIA did everything it could to malign Ackman's reputation. He was under investigation for more than a couple of years where he tried to convince the "rating agencies" Moodys, Fitch and the like and the regulators about all that was wrong with MBIA and other such companies. Confidence Game is a good book worth reading to understand how dumb the regulators and rating agencies can be.
So ultimately Ackman probably knows more about this than the reporter or the regulators because he binges on tons of information and is pissed that no one is doing anything about it. Similarly to what happened with MBIA. I'd say that he is going to this extent because he is beyond frustrated that others can't see what he can see and he is trying to get others to do the research, and do what is right. He has stated that he will stick to this as long as it takes and so if there is an investigation, and they (Herbalife) come out clean, it'd still be a losing bet for Ackman as he is mainly concentrating his $$ into this trade.
If I had to put my money, I'd put it with Ackman, unfortunately I'm still grappling with my student debt to be able to afford making these kinds of bets.
In the grand scheme of things, I think Bill Ackman is more like David than Goliath. Sure he has a couple of billion in the bank, but investors like him are why corporate executives aren't partying like they used to in the 50s/60s/70s/80s and are becoming more accountable to shareholders (albeit very slowly).
I'd go so far as to say that if Paul Graham was in the business of funding hedge fund managers, Ackman would be one of his top picks from the applicant pool.
Also to add more context:
Ackman outspent by Herbalife in lobbying battle [1]
Hedge fund manager William Ackman, who is betting $1.16 billion that Herbalife is a fraud, spent $264,000 last year on lobbyists to press his case against the company, according to government documents filed in recent weeks.
THAT AMOUNT IS DWARFED BY THE NEARLY $2 million Herbalife spent in 2013 on federal lobbying as the nutrition and weight loss company fought the billionaire investor's claims it runs a pyramid scheme. In an illegal pyramid scheme members earn more for recruiting new members into the scheme than for selling the products outside the network.
And Ackman isn't alone in thinking that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme [2].
Disclaimer: This is my opinion, and as such all I know about Ackman is from the press, reading his report/book called "Is MBIA Triple A?", the book mentioned in the article "Confidence Game", his talks/interviews/tv reports and second hand articles on the web.
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/09/us-herbalife-idUSB... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbalife#Pyramid_scheme_allega...
Bill is smart. He saw that Wendy's had a division that was taking off (Tim Horton). A successful division can bring a lot of money into a company to offset other struggling divisions, and provide fuel for further growth. Bill invested in Wendy's, go them to spin off the division, getting bill a huge win in the IPO, and then he dumped the Wendy's stock.
He is a new breed of corporate raider who wants to take as much money from a company and then bail.
Bribing politicians to try and force a stock to collapse is market manipulation and is illegal. If any of the hedge funds he told about the non-public letter affecting a public company acted on that knowledge then that is insider trading and illegal. Trying to convince other hedge funds to bet against a stock could also be seen as a market manipulation (Since if the other hedge fudges take positions against the price would drop).
If I were to open a betting pool in vegas on what hedge funds were going to be shut down and the partners put in prison, and then bribed the SEC to investigate to make sure I win am I in the wrong? Or am I just a savvy investor?
I really don't want to get into a flame war, but can you please explain where you got the impression that politicians were bribed by Ackman? Lobbying != Bribing.
> If I were to open a betting pool in vegas on what hedge funds were going to be shut down and the partners put in prison, and then bribed the SEC to investigate to make sure I win am I in the wrong?
Firstly I'm not really sure whether you are being serious, because the SEC isn't an organization that you can just "BRIBE". I'm not talking about the past but the current day, and nothing remotely suggests that you can bribe the SEC. Believe me with the amount of money at play, bad actors in the SEC would be soon found out. Besides it is more lucrative for lawyers/accountants of the SEC to join the dark side (corporate law & accounting firms) instead of accepting bribes while at the SEC.
You have the right to state / make your complaints to the SEC (with evidence) and it is up to them to investigate whatever they deem investigation worthy.
Also, I feel that that talking about Wendy's or attacking Ackman's profession adds nothing to this discussion. Dumping stock is quite similar to early engineers of a IPO'ed startup cashing out. That is what you (mostly) do when you want to capture the upside of your position; you close it down when the upside is still there.
Insider trading is when a person inside the company releases nonpublic information to people who trade on the basis of that information.
Are you asserting that Ackman is an Herbalife insider?
Anything that people trade on that is "material" non-public information is covered
SEC Website https://www.sec.gov/answers/insider.htm
On the other hand, the idea of having large and influential actors interested in the failure of an endeavor seems shocking and worth covering. It does lack a mention on the interests at stake, but I understand the angle on (nascent?) negativity in business.
You lost me here.
Also, investing with Ackman is a terrible idea. His presentations are convincing and I agree that Herbalife's business model looks shady at best but I don't see things changing anytime soon.
> I really don't think he is stupid enough to want to lose more money just to stroke his ego.
At the risk of a cliche, it really isn't about money any more. When Icahn gets involved and we get to witness the CNBC equivalent of a schoolyard brawl on live tv, it's not about what's best for their investors.
Two options:
(1) End independent spheres of activity
(2) Fix the exploits
Option #1 is an authoritarian state, option #2 is a state that recognizes individual rights (i.e. non-aggression) in principle on every issue.
And on top of that nonsense, thanks to the carried interest tax loophole, Ackerman will pay very low taxes on his shenanigans.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carried_interest#Taxation_of_ca...
He has no problem enabling and assisting the bad actors, just in a way that benefits himself.
You misunderstand how a short sale works. The intention is to buy at a lower price at a later date, not sell at a lower price at a later date.
Yes, the way our financial markets work, speculators on both sides must provide liquidity to the markets. However, presumably the net effect of his short selling (and any synthetic short positions he has acquired) is to reduce the stock price, thus reducing profits of Herbalife executives and those who have helped Herbalife raise operating capital by investing in the company in the past.
Now, if your contention (edit: "contention is") that selling Herbalife at a low price is an amoral act, that doesn't necessarily mean the converse (buying at a low price) is a moral act. I'm just saying your argument begins with a false premise: that his intention is to sell Herbalife shares at prices below current market price.
Also, it's possible for an action to be amoral and its opposite to simultaneously be amoral, but that's a difficult argument to construct well in general. Having argued that it's amoral for him to sell at a lower price in the future, it's difficult to construct an argument that it's amoral for him to buy at a lower price in the future without contradicting your earlier arguments.
So Ackman punished Herbalife shareholders with unnecessary volatility through his actions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HLF+Interactive#symbol=hl...
Most of the product is purchased not by end-user consumers, but by vulnerable sales people who have been sold on false hope.