PG is just making stuff up as usual. That "theory" isn't even consistent over a few sentences.

"In our world, you sink or swim, and there are no excuses."

"The top 5% of programmers probably write 99% of the good software."

So 95% of programmers make 1% of the good software, but somehow they aren't "sinking"? By comparison what do think happens to the far far majority of players that doesn't get drafted to the NBA?