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Do you think this means that it is less likely, or more likely to be related to the thefts?

According to Gox, the theft was happening over a long period of time, not one lump sum. Transfers to this address began in April of 2012, which is consistent with the story.

If this address does belong to the thief, why would they steal all the bitcoins with a single address? Surely using different addresses would make it less suspicious

I don't necessarily believe that this address was related to the theft, only pointing out that the expectation of one transaction containing all the stolen bitcoin is not correct. Yes, using different addresses would be less suspicious.

Also fairly round, large denomination. Even when scamming somebody as incompetent as MtGox, as a criminal I'd be more elaborate than saying "I haven't received the 5000 BTC, can you send them again?" to the same address hundreds of times.

I don't think this has anything to do with it, it should be easy to determine if the transaction are linked to MtGox and malled tx's

Criminals are lazy

How accurate this is? It looks like at few points balance is negative.