> they can at least tell if a season is going to be bad well ahead of time.
Proof needed.
e.g., the UK Met office predicted this would be a dry winter...
Proof needed.
e.g., the UK Met office predicted this would be a dry winter...
How about applying some statistics, like the probability that a correct forecast (whatever that is) could be accounted for by chance, given the population of forecasts and conditions in which it takes place? P-values have their limitations, but that's no reason to discard them entirely.