I'm trying to find an explanation for how WhatsApp's network is supposedly worth drastically more than Gmail / Yahoo / Hotmail webmail is. Just because users connect, doesn't mean you have a pot of gold. I believe this is a critical, flawed assumption that is being nearly universally made. Last generation's instant messaging apps were nearly worthless monetarily, and are still nearly worthless even today with tons of users. Why the assumption that today's mobile versions of instant messaging will be worth ... over a hundred billion dollars (apparently)?

I've got an alternate theory. Today's WhatsApps and Snapchats will turn out to be terrible businesses, that aren't worth anywhere near what's being speculated. Today's user (mobile based) obsession will be viewed as not all that different from yesterday's eyeballs (web based) obsession. What are the consequences of that scenario?