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Comment by the_watcher | Hacker News Reader

Why is their stock overvalued? Do you have any evidence of this beyond you thinking there is a bubble? Honestly curious, since it seems to me their stock is rising for a reason: the fundamentals of the company are strong, and they have demonstrated an ability to rapidly react to new trends.

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They have a P/E of ~100. They'd need to grow earnings 7x to reach a typical P/E of ~15.

Not saying it's impossible, but they're already very large. They have as many users as they're going to get (who isn't on there now?) so they need to earn 7x the income from the existing base.

Well, they continue to add users (albeit more slowly), and the world population is increasing, so I don't see any evidence that they won't add any new users. They actually don't even have 20% penetration of "everyone" by monthly active users, and I'd argue Facebook is on its way to being as ubiquitous as email.

>Why is their stock overvalued?

Because delusional people still didn't learn their lesson from the first bubble.

>Do you have any evidence of this

Their P/E is 112. That's the very definition of overvalued. The price of their stock makes the company worth far more than they earn. If you purchased facebook, it would take you 112 years to break even on that "investment" at their current earning rate.

Consensus analyst 12 month estimate (Feb 15th) is Hi: $82, Lo:$24, Mean: $70. So basically, consensus growth on the year in the stock price is 3%. Compare that to a market of 32% last year. Does not look like the analysts think FB is going to grow much. It's going to take a while to grow into that valuation.

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