Comment by icu | Hacker News Reader

Comment by icu | Hacker News Reader

There are a lot of political things going on in the background with this case.

1. New Zealand (NZ) desperately wants closer economic ties to the US but is constrained by public sentiment

Because New Zealand is primarily a low value added commodity export based economy the NZ Government and NZ businesses highly covet lower trade barriers. However NZ's anti-nuke stance and lack of military spend means that NZ will never get free trade agreement. Therefore anything else the NZ Government can do to appease US counterparts wins NZ small favors. This is why NZ is very much in bed with US spooks and basically has a US intelligence facility in Waihopai.

I firmly believe that this was a primary reason for the NZ Government's willingness to let their US Government counterparts to run the operation on Kim Dotcom.

2. NZ has been trying to woo the US film and TV industry

The NZ Government has been doing its best to entice the US film and TV industry even before the success of The Lord of the Rings (circa 1995 with Hercules: The Legendary Journeys).

I'm of the opinion that the heavy handed nature of the raid on Kim Dotcom was to send a message the NZ Government takes the rights of film and TV studios seriously.

That said, I think the NZ Government didn't properly gauge how far public opinion would swing against them for being so heavy handed against Kim Dotcom. Kiwis love an underdog and when the local TV media showed video footage of the raid on Kim Dotcom complete with helicopters and SUVs it certainly looked like an absurd Hollywood action movie. Also the use of the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) to spy on Kim Dotcom unnerved many Kiwi's sense of privacy.

After this recent ruling I'm not sure how this whole saga will play out. I imagine that with with his personal freedom at stake, Kim Dotcom will keep pressing his case through to the Supreme Court of New Zealand.

Let's recap why this is bad: The government raided the guy's house with a ridiculous SWAT team including guns and helicopters, instead of asking him to visit court. This was not only a waste of time and money, but did not go through any form of due process. On top of this, there is documented interference prior to the event by US politicians associated with the RIAA.

New Zealand has a free trade agreement with China. They don't need the US.

I agree with you about why it is bad.

However the sentiment in your comment, "They don't need the US" I don't quite agree with.

Yes it is amazing that NZ has a free trade agreement with China. I think it was the first in the western world to do so. However only the huge export companies and cooperatives like Fonterra have managed to make use of it. Due to the language and cultural differences 'ordinary' kiwi small to medium businesses are not able to capitalize on the agreement.

In comparison a trade deal with the US wouldn't have such difficult language and cultural differences.

Trade benefits both partners and increases wealth. So while it may be true that NZ doesn't need trade agreement with the US it still needs good relations especially for defense purposes.

I believe it is possible to invade NZ with one aircraft carrier, several submarines, a small fleet of supersonic jets and a relatively small mercenary ground force. Hardly anything really. I still think that if a Maori revolutionary group ever got serious financial backing for military weaponry NZ would be in trouble.

Why any country would want to invade NZ is another story but the point is that NZ's defense forces are weak and few and it needs defense partnerships with the US and Australia to guarantee that no one would consider an invasion because of the threat of US and Australian intervention. Sure you might include the UK but the logistics of deployment of UK military assets would make it difficult.

However NZ's anti-nuke stance and lack of military spend means that NZ will never get free trade agreement

Is this an official policy? Why is nuclear such a big deal, and how does the military factor in? Is it just that those are the major things the US would like to sell to NZ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand%27s_nuclear-free_z...

Yep, it's the law. Much to the chagrin of the US.

Their Military has no Nuclear weapons, and the population is pretty strongly opposed to anything nuclear, instead favouring 'green' technology.

I'd go as far to say, as it's now so entrenched in NZ's identity, if any government that tried to repeal it, it would be an act of political suicide.

Sorry, my reply was badly phrased. I understand NZ's anti-nuclear stance, I was just wondering why the US think that's so important for free trade agreements.

Hi, I just answered your question above.

Hi, yes it is an official policy. It has to do with New Zealander's objection to nuclear weapons which was brought about by nuclear weapons testing in the pacific by the French. This has a knock on effect of straining NZ and US military ties and therefore NZ and US economic ties.

* Anti-Nuke Background

The watershed was the 1985 sinking of the Rainbow Warrior, a Greenpeace protest ship, in New Zealand by French secret agents that lead to the death of one of the crew.[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior]

This enraged the general public in NZ and lead to wide spread protest. Since the mid-1980s the anti-nuke stance has become part of the Kiwi psyche to the point where no Government would dare change it.

* Being anti-nukes effects NZ and US military relations

This causes problems with NZ and US relations because the US has a nuclear powered navy with nuclear weapons (ships and subs) and therefore no US watercraft are allowed in NZ territorial boarders as the US Navy has a "neither confirm nor deny" policy when it comes to the nuclear capability of a particular ship.

Also because NZ has a very small military budget, NZ relies heavily on the assumption that the US provides regional protection in the Pacific. This has lead to a strained military relationship. If you are interested in a summary read the Wikipedia ANZUS article.[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ANZUS]

* Strained military relations lead to strained economic relations

The trouble that NZ has is that the economic benefits of free trade with the US are worth a lot more to NZ than the US. NZ really has no leverage except to let the US do what it wants, and the US cares deeply about unconstrained military options. Because of the constraint on the US Navy by NZ's anti-nuke stance, this means that until NZ changes, the US will not bargain with NZ on other issues like trade.

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