Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today

Here's the forecast:

http://www.satview.org/spacejunk.php?sat_id=12054U

Yes - same satellite number, your link includes the word "satellite," and it appears that the site defaults to the space station if you do something wrong, with no indication.

Very helpful.

The site also thinks it's now decayed or re-entered and no longer actually plots the track. Which is a shame.

Short answer - no. This is a completely uncontrolled "re-entry" and no one knows where the pieces will end up.

In a general sense, no. However once its orbit decays to the point where friction with the upper atmosphere can impart a couple of kilonewtons of delta-v you can then create a probability ellipse and lay that on the globe. One of the interesting confounding factors is how much "side" force (perpindicular to the orbit) is created by the various parts sticking out burning up. A satellite where its appendages burn off cleanly quickly becomes ballistic and its impact point is fairly tightly constrained, one which still has onboard propellant will sometimes get a kick in some random direction by that tank exploding, and satellites which, in their deployment configuration, are prone to spinning, can be spun by atmospheric re-entry to the point where they are ripped apart by the centripetal forces generated. But even in that case, the things that are likely to make it all the way to the ground (like tungsten fuel tanks) are pretty small and constrained again by the ballistic footprint from where it started.

From a pure statistics point of view you can say "in the water" and be more likely correct than incorrect. If that helps.

So Saudi Arabia? Edit: Or Europe or the South Pacific depending on which website and where I click.