http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
His own view seems to be summed up as:
The conventional wisdom says that the economy will create 50 million new jobs to absorb all the unemployed people, but that raises two important questions:
- What will those new jobs be?
They won't be in manufacturing -- robots will hold all the manufacturing jobs. They won't be in the service sector (where most new
jobs are now) -- robots will work in all the restaurants
and retail stores. They won't be in transportation --
robots will be driving everything. They won't be in
security (robotic police, robotic firefighters), the
military (robotic soldiers), entertainment (robotic
actors), medicine (robotic doctors, nurses, pharmacists,
counselors), construction (robotic construction workers),
aviation (robotic pilots, robotic air traffic controllers),
office work (robotic receptionists, call centers and
managers), research (robotic scientists), education
(robotic teachers and computer-based training), programming
or engineering (outsourced to India at one-tenth the cost),
farming (robotic agricultural machinery), etc. We are
assuming that the economy is going to invent an entirely
new category of employment that will absorb half of the
working population. - Why isn't the economy creating those new jobs now?
Today there are millions of unemployed people. There are
also tens of millions of people who would gladly abandon
their minimum wage jobs scrubbing toilets, flipping
burgers, driving trucks and shelving inventory for
something better. This imaginary new category of employment
does not hinge on technology -- it is going to employ
people, after all, in massive numbers -- it is going to
employ half of today's working population. Why don't we see
any evidence of this new category of jobs today?Although I think he goes a bit overboard in some cases (robotic actors?), I still find this to be rather persuasive.