Seriously, how should Bitcoin replace real money if that remains true? There's a book store round the corner accepting bitcoin - so I go, select a book, pay and hang around an hour until I get to leave with the book? At least I'd have enough reading material...
#1: "Well if you buy a book with a credit card, the bookstore has no guarantee that that charge actually settles successfully."
#2: "Most people won't use Bitcoin directly. They'll keep their Bitcoin with a trusted provider. The trusted provider can verify capability to pay as quickly as a SQL transaction, via any mechanism mutually acceptable to it and the bookstore, which need not involve the blockchain. Providers which routinely allow their customers to steal from other members of the ecosystem won't be trusted for very long, and be forced to transact through the blockchain versus being being extended instantaneous credit."
The response to #2 is typically "We could call those providers 'banks'" and the Bitcoin community is, how shall I put this, divided by how much they like that outcome.
#2 just replaces the current system with the same system but another name and different actor, so I still don't get where the advantage lies :)
I can totally see how bitcoin can work in online transactions where credit cards are currently used, especially if fulfillment happens after some delay, but I don't see it replacing cash unless we mint little bitcoins with an embedded chip that contains a non-removable amount of satoshis. But that's very much not viable.
You don't get to wield much power when your costumers are using you for buying coffee at Starbucks, but not when buying a car or another big purchase, or something shipped from somewhere (since it's reasonably to wait one hour for those to process).
Also, if I understood patio11s first post correctly, that large-purchase wallet would still need an hour after each purchase to clear properly [1]. Now, I don't run around and buy a couple of cars one after the other from different provides but it quite often happens that I need to book flights, hotel accommodations and rental cars for a business trip and I can't wait an hour after each step to go forward to the next one. More wallets here? Am I missing something?
[1] The ideal case seems to be to wait until a transaction is in the blockchain before sending the next one from the same wallet, but that could in theory take even longer.
I don't think book flights and hotel reservations would require you to wait until previous transactions clear, these kinds of businesses always have the option to cancel your booking if they notice a double-spend on your side.
Edit: in general, businesses that receive your payments days in advance of delivering the product, Bitcoin is a better alternative than Credit Cards which can have chargebacks weeks after or charge a high fee
In Electrum, you can right-click on a receiving address with 0.1 coins in it, and choose to spend coins only from that address ("Send from").
Same principle as not carrying around a wallet full of $1000 bills.
And regarding the creation of banks for bitcoin I find it interesting that we keep coming back towards old and tried solutions. As a bystander it's pretty educative, I feel I've learned quite a lot about how money works (or doesn't work) in all those bitcoin threads we've had lately.
The best guarantee you get when you run a card in the US is "As of the current instant in time, that card is valid and has sufficient credit on it to cover the amount you just charged", but that is very far from a guarantee that the charge will actually be settled without incident. But it's still good enough.
(And if you're scandalized by this, ask me about checks!)
(P.S. Your thoughts and response are always very thoughtful and appreciated).
You covered #2 - yep, those are banks. And you'd be giving them a lot of control over the currency if this became the standard means of transacting.
#1 ... if bitcoin is to replace fiat, then it must replace fiat. I can go ahead and walk into a bookstore with a $20, bill and walk out with a book and $10 in change.
It's not a replacement for fiat if there's an hour before I can leave the bookstore, and during the same hour can't buy anything else with my remaining $10...
My answer is much simpler:
#3 It will be fixed.
And I know I'm not alone with that answer.