Yes, There’s a Pilot Shortage: Salaries Start at $21,000

My friend graduated from LA Tech in 08 with a degree in professional aviation with the goal of working for ATC or a commercial airline. He initially got a job as a flight instructor making ~$25/hour and was lucky to get more than 20 hours per week. Then the bottom fell out with the economy, massive job cuts across the board at airlines, and he looked for a better job because nobody would be hiring for a long time, everything is seniority based, and he wasn't going to pay out of pocket to keep his flight hours up for a few years. Now he's an accountant.

Maybe you're just arguing against the term "shortage" and saying there's never a shortage of labor supply in any field, just a shortage of people willing to do the work at what's considered the going rate? Can't we just stipulate that this is what a shortage of <profession-here> means?

I now work in education, part of which is career and technical education. We are approached by two very large businesses constantly complaining about the shortage of skilled workers. "We can't fill these jobs fast enough" is the theme, and students bite constantly. These jobs range from machine operators, to skilled machinists to engineers.

One look at the job postings reveal a couple of themes:

Machine operator listed at $10.00; 28 hours a week, so they don't have to provide benefits. That's an unskilled position, so I don't disagree with the wage. BUT, for the last 40 years, these positions were full-time with benefits. In the last 5 to 10 years they've been downsized to whatever the number is that keeps it just under full-time so the business doesn't have to worry about benefits.

Skilled Machinist: the last post was for a master machinist (20 years exp? I'm not sure how long that takes) with various CAD, MAZAK and other various certifications depending on the job - one even required that the applicant be a Bridge certified welder in addition to master machinist (price those people out sometime). They listed at a ‘competitive’ $15-$25 an hour. That's a joke for the time, energy and ability that it takes to do that job. If you ever want to see what the definition of good at everything is – talk to a master machinist those men and women can quite literally use any piece of machinery that exists. These wages are almost identical to what this position made in the 1970's. That is over 40 years later, and they expect to pay the same wage. I'm not certain what they post for a journeyman machinist, but I have to assume that it's low as well.

Engineer: They can't hire these, because 'your institution isn't turning out quality applicants'. We were spooked by this, so we did a careful inventory of current student prospects, and past graduate employment. Turns out that they can't hire our graduates because they're offering 30,XXX-45,XXX lower per year than John Deer, Caterpillar and other heavy machinery organizations that are within 4 hours of our town. Granted, these businesses aren't as large as JD or Cat, but they are still multi-billion dollar international companies.

My prediction is the following: In 10-15 years we will have an overabundance of ‘skilled workers’ in the manufacturing field, much as we have a surplus of college graduates right now. The message to kids used to be ‘go to college,’ now it’s ‘be an engineer or work in the manufacturing industry’. It’s just a matter of time before the software gets to the point that the monkey entering numbers doesn’t have to actually understand the numbers to turn out a product. When that happens, look out kiddos, the bottom will drop out of that market as well. My proof? Five years ago our first-time, first-year students were 75% liberal arts/soft sciences, 25% hard sciences and engineering. Our enrollment figures for Fall 2014 show more of a 50/50 split, with the number of new engineering students growing faster than any other category. This shift is nearly unprecedented.

The train is headed down the tracks full speed, and no one is manning the brakes.

I don't want to say that you shouldn't, we could discuss all night about it, just don't do it for the wrong reasons.

Flying will be only a part of what you do in the military, consider if you are REALLY OK with all the other aspects of military life before joining.

Simply put, there are not enough flight officers discharging to meet civilian demand. They aren't getting $21K offers either. FAA changed the rules so that 1500hrs are required to be copilot. So new pilots are really glorified interns.

Edit: Also, military flight training is highly competitive. You can get a commission and never log a single flight. Your career is at the behest of the military's needs. If they have a shortage of supply depot officers guess where you're headed.

Once you get 1500 hours you can make the jump to that $21k/yr regional airline job. Getting from your first lesson to this point could be done in 2 years, but that would be pretty quick. Realistically it's going to take 3 or 4.

Then you need 1000 hours as pilot in command of a jet to get hired by one of the big airlines. It will probably take 4 to 6 years at a regional airline to get those hours.

So all told you've got a large initial investment (not sure on the exact amount, a rough guess would be $75k for all the certs) and 10 years of horrible pay to get a $65k/year job. Eventually you make good money, but it takes a while to get there and if your health or eyesight takes a hit along the way it was all for nothing.

Many of the jump pilots worked there mainly to accumulate hours for other qualifications.

It was mentioned that in the current model the only military pilot that will be hired by commercial carriers are the cargo pilots - the guy who can fly heavy. Helicopter pilots make an easy transition but that is not a "commercial" job like we normally think but it is well paying and almost impossible to get into. Fighter pilots are a different breed and do not transition well into commercial piloting.

But, to answer your real question - YES! Absolutely you can. It is hard work. You can go different routes. Ignoring the military option, you can go directly to your commercial license or go to a university that has a flight school. The benefit of the university option is that you have a real degree that goes along with your commercial certification. Both options cost a ton of money. Planes are expensive. Fuel is expensive. There are loans.

Going direct for your cert can also take different routes. You don't have to go to a big-name school. There are a lot of schools that offer a fast track. You'll get your private in 6 weeks the commercial some months after that and the entire time you're building the hours you need. Some will help find you a job after. If you have the option of living at home, you can get a commercial license yourself. Find a local flight school and just go at your own pace. Get your private license first and see how you like it.

For me, I had to stop midway through my private license. I loved it but becoming a commercial pilot is a choice for the young. The union/seniority/salary structure of the airlines doesn't lend itself to older guys switching over. I had a family to take care of the the benefits and money wouldn't really kick in until 5-8 years down the road. Plus, my wife was freaking out big time about me plummeting to my death.

Basically unions are running a ponzi scheme, where they get juniors to buy in to this crazy scheme under promise that they will be making hundreds of thousands of dollars salary ten or twenty years down the road.

I think that at this time the relationship between senior and junior pilots is pretty representative of how boomers are shafting the younger generations.

salary goes up -> higher ticket prices -> less customers

$21,000 and less flights may be the actual optimum

Lots of people work in jobs so they can do what they love, and money is not primary.

Money is not an index into the skill scale.

With the £9,000 a year tuition fees, it's easy to rack up £50k in student debt (£9k fees + £5-7k a year in living expenses) to get a three-year UK degree.