“That's a stupid idea”
jeffw.svbtle.com
jeffw.svbtle.com
http://www.bvp.com/portfolio/antiportfolio
They had the chance to invest in the following companies early, but didn't: Intel, Google, Apple, FedEx, PayPal, and others.
Part of the problem is that with almost all good ideas, you are trying to introduce a new reality where a familiar one already exist.
This is misleading unless we know the list size in which these bypassed companies appeared. If the success/failure ratio is 0.01, then it should surprise no one that venture capitalists sometimes miss a winner while carefully investing in startups.
The stupidest things can turn out to be hits. I read of a guy who decided to market an electric toothbrush in the early '90s, when that market was considered by skeptics to be mature and saturated. He was quite successful, as it turned out.
I guess the nature of entrepreneurship is that it's entirely unpredictable. Therefore, we can safely disregard the naysayers, even though they are accidentally right 9 times out of 10!
JK Rowling wrote a crime novel under a different name. The critics praised it, but it was a commerical failure. It's more likely that luck can play a large failure.
JK Rowling herself has said the number of copies the book sold in its first three months corresponds fairly well to the number of books she sold under her own name when she was initially published.
Luck does play quite a large part in this once the initial vetting for quality is done.
Sometimes I find there was some data I was missing. But, if I still believe it to be a bad idea, rather than tell them their idea is stupid I simply say "I'd never build that because of x, y, & z" which is an honest and unassuming statement.
People gossip. I'm not in the Valley myself, but friends are, and from what I've been told the OPs description of behind-the-back unconstructive negativity... Well, I think that's a bad way of helping each other.
To put it simply: I think we need to be a little more sensitive. That doesn't mean we can't be critical, but if you temper that with some empathy, you'll often get better results, in my experience.
Hell, the "Pet Rock" sold millions, and I would hope we can all agree that was a stupid idea.
Yet many people did find the idea not only not stupid, but compelling enough to pay for.
So "stupid" is an entirely subjective assessment. I would never have invested in the "pet rock" idea as a funding venture, but clearly if I had done so at the right time, it could have been rewarding to do so.
When there's one "stupid idea" making a run at the barricades, it's easy to be supportive. But when every idea immediately clones three other "fast follower" ideas, people get cynical pretty quickly.
I just made this page 2 hours ago, and took a break to see whats up on HN. As I was making this, I was thinking "This is a stupid idea" :)
Of course there are massive challenges associated with international commerce, which means probably only the big dogs (Amazon et al) can tackle this one.
If you just consider exotic foods, the safety issues alone is enough to scare the hell out of any regulator.
One way that this could work would be to perhaps build an Etsy-like network of individual expat/immigrant entrepreneurs who will basically setup shop via your site and be responsible for moving the products.
For instance I have friends who are immigrants and ship products from their home countries and sell them here in the states. So you could set up a service for these people to sell their goods to Americans.
About your point 'set up a service for these people to sell their goods to Americans.' - Never thought about this. So you are saying that there be dedicated businesses selling to americans, and 'shipped by' people who are travelling? Have I understood your view correctly?
You would handle things like payment and verifying the identity of your buyers and sellers, but the actual procurement and shipment of goods would be handled by the seller/entrepreneur.
I have a friend who ships handmade handbags from Senegal and sells them in NYC in the summer. She's responsible for dealing with the production issues in Senegal (not fun) and the shipment to NYC.
Now your service would be to offer this person a popular online space to sell the bags to a broader audience.
*It looks like what you are thinking of is for the person doing the traveling to basically buy the stuff and bring it back or vice verse take it with them?...
Yes Exactly.
As the seller/traveller, I don't want to get screwed in terms of time and money. It's a hassle to around my city to pick up an item, and then to pack it, haul it through two different airports, get it through customs, and then to have to meet the traveller during my busy schedule (and who really wants to do this during their vacation?). It better be worth my while, and I'd like the money upfront so I don't have to take this thing back with me in case the buyer flakes.
As the buyer, I don't want to get screwed by the traveller. I'm sending them the money, and they may never show up.
I would consider trying to find a niche of small, portable products that don't present any customs/duty problems, and then try to scale up from there. Trust platforms like Facebook, PayPal, or escrow may help mitigate in some cases, but not all.
I would actually consider focusing on the very low end. For example, what if it was just a $5 candy exchange. It's actually a meet-new-people-platform, with candy as an excuse for traveller to meet locals.
(Btw, I just posted the question on Ask HN, is it ok if I reply there? - I thought the idea was so strikingly stupid that no one would care)
Anyway, I have some thoughts about the problems you laid out. I will post a reply on the ask HN thread - and would love to get your thoughts!
Thanks for good points.
There are many things that an individual traveler simply cannot bring through customs. Many agricultural products, meats, cheeses, etc. I would guess there are also issues with collection of duty on tech products like iPhones especially if they are being transported for ultimate delivery to another party, and not just the personal property of the traveler.
Then he took me for a walk during a convention we attended together, and he said very bluntly: "Listen, this will never work. Your product is nice and you can execute the tech part, but your go to market strategy is all wrong because [XYZ]. I have been known to be wrong before, but you guys are basically driving off a cliff".
The irony is that because we had a bullshit guard up for every word coming from anyone in the industry - that we just said "hey, he's wrong, next investor please". His advice was pure gold, and in retrospect, spot on about the problems we had, that could have been fixed at that stage.
Being Israeli I prefer brutal truths over polite bullshit. And personally I try to be honest with people showing me their ideas - while being positive and polite. But knowing the scene, not all Israelis are like that.
The "experts" are indeed expert in rhetoric because after one of their failure prediction ends up actually succeeding, they are quick to point of how it succeeded, often mentioning "luck"; and possibly pointing out the impeding failure.
What I would like to see the "expert" saying is who/what will succeed, and I have yet to find an "expert" who does that.
Interestingly enough, most of these "experts" are nothing more than professional writers/talker and don't actually do anything related to what they are talking about. I like the expression "Monday morning quarterback".
You shouldn't be randomly picking apart other people's companies just to make yourself feel better, that is not moving the needle for your own company at all. You also shouldn't be worried about what other random people are saying about your startup since there will always be haters.
Instead you should be heads down focused on your own problems or possibly helping other people who you personally know in private. Posting some criticism on the internet to appear smart or fulfill some other base psychological desire is just a waste of time.
probing helps me move from reactive to proactive stance, from attached to objective. this way, i can better filter the noise.
note: some of the biggest mistakes i made in my past startup were listening to too many people or not listening closely enough to a few. that is the paradox of good judgment (which i believe comes from some combination of gut instinct and pattern-watching; listening is just another form of data collection for the latter).
You should understand it as: According to my very limited experience and narrow understanding of reality, that's very unlikely” -Paul Buchheit
I always thought USV missed few to-be-facebook startups. Anybody care to give us some names?